Preview: SE Melbourne v Sydney (Round 11)

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 18 December

Where: Gippsland Regional Indoor Sports Stadium, Traralgon

Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ

Who won the last time?

Sydney 91 (Martin 24, Adams 15, Vasiljevic 15) d South East Melbourne 89 (Munford 26, Creek 17, Ashley 13) – Round 16, NBL22 at John Cain Arena

This was one of eight single-figure losses for the Phoenix in the final eight weeks of NBL22, their lack of clutch execution ultimately costing them a playoff berth. Fittingly, they charged from eight down in the final term to pull within one of the Kings on a Xavier Munford triple, but then were unable to score in the final 2:25 and a golden chance went begging as Jarell Martin capped off a brilliant night by sealing the game at the foul line.

What happened last game?

The Kings got the job done in the clutch in Wollongong on Friday, exorcising some late-game demons from their previous two outings thanks to five offensive boards in the final four minutes and six final-quarter assists from Derrick Walton Jr and Xavier Cooks. The local derby didn’t go so well for South East Melbourne, who were outplayed and outhustled from go-to-woe by United, who held their rivals to sub-35 per cent shooting for the second straight meeting.

What’s working?

Mitch Creek – That Throwdown loss wasn’t due to Creek’s lack of effort, racking up 22 points, 10 rebounds, two assists, two steals and drawing eight fouls. For all his quality last season though, Creek only shot the ball at 37 per cent in three losses to the Kings, including an uncharacteristic 39 per cent on twos while only getting to the foul line 4.7 times per night. He’ll be keen to make a statement in their first meeting of NBL23.

Xavier Cooks – The X-man only played two of the encounters with South East Melbourne last season, but dominated with 21ppg at 53 per cent, 3/6 from long range, 8rpg and 4.5 o-boards. He’s in an even better vein of form at the moment, his past five outings producing 18.2ppg at 63 per cent, 9.0rpg and 3.7apg. Keeping Cooks away from opportunistic plays is key, and Creek may need to sacrifice some of his team defence to maintain a tight leash around the hoop.

What needs stopping?

Coughing it up – The Kings averaged 12.6 turnovers en route to the NBL22 title, but their past three outings have seen them cough up 16.3 per game, with Chase Buford’s men -18 on points from turnovers in the past two contests. SE Melbourne are +62 on points from turnovers in wins this season, compared to -7 in losses, and Sydney can ill-afford to set Gary Browne, Trey Kell, Ryan Broekhoff and Creek free in transition on a regular basis.

Bricking it up – Sydney sagged in like the U16s on Friday and dared Illawarra’s lesser marksmen to shoot, then cleaned up 74 per cent of the d-boards. They’ll likely be using similar tactics against the Phoenix, given Simon Mitchell’s men have made just 20/82 at 24 per cent in their past four losses, but averaged 31.5 free throws in their past four Ws. With Browne, Kyle Adnam, Junior Madut and Reuben Te Rangi shooting 15/57 since the start of December, there’s no prizes for guessing who the Kings will be sending subtle invitations to.

Who’s matching up?

Alan Williams v Tim Soares – Williams has shot at just 42 per cent against Melbourne, but a sizzling 62 per cent against the rest, with his scoring a key factor given South East Melbourne are only 4-4 when he scores 15 or less. Sydney were outstanding at denying the roll man in Wollongong on Friday, so the Phoenix may have to find their big man after ball movement. At the other end, Sauce likes to shut down the roller himself, so Walton needs to be on the attack.

Ryan Broekhoff v Justin Simon – In Phoenix losses, Broekhoff is averaging 5.3ppg and 3.5rpg, hitting just 1.3 triples. In wins he delivers 12.2ppg and 4.8rpg, draining an impressive 2.4 treys at 48 per cent. Simon’s job on Sunday is to crowd Rowdy’s space on the three-point line, beat him to the boards and then test his speed in transition, because Sydney are 7-1 when Justin hits double-figures and 8-1 when he scores four or more two-point buckets.

Gary Browne v Derrick Walton Jr – If you feel the need for speed then this is the match-up for you. Walton stepped it up in the final quarter in the Gong with four key dimes, and of note is his assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.2 in wins compared to 1.3 in defeat. That differential is even more extreme for Browne, whose ratio is an electric 3.1 in victories compared to 1.4 in Ls. When GB has dealt seven or more dimes this season, the Phoenix are an elite 8-1.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Alrighty Gary! ?<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/DULFrpXMMj">pic.twitter.com/DULFrpXMMj</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1603331684719792129?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 15, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

South East Melbourne have had a bit of a problem in Throwdowns, and it’s probably not going to get any easier playing against the champion Kings.

“Our finishing around the rim has been a problem a few games against Melbourne United, they did a good job of protecting the rim,” Phoenix coach Simon Mitchell said.

“We maybe wore a few that weren’t rewarded as well and I think that got into our heads a little bit.

“I thought our focus wasn’t great tonight, I didn’t think our discipline was great, we got a little upset with some officiating early and it trailed off into some of our play and we've got to be better than that.”

In four cross-town match-ups, SE Melbourne have averaged just 20 two-point makes at a wayward 40 per cent, compared to 23.9 at 54 per cent across their other 13 outings.

So while it's not an ongoing issue, it’s something they need to solve before taking on Sydney, who give up a league-low 18.6 two-point baskets at 46 per cent.

Sydney are also the kings of scoring inside with an extraordinary 25.4 inside makes at 57 per cent, led by the indefatigable Xavier Cooks-Derrick Walton partnership that torments opposition ball-screen defences.

Against Illawarra on Friday, the pair combined to shoot 12/18 from inside the arc at 67 per cent while dishing nine dimes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Soaring to the rim??<br>Live on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://t.co/5dN485PyRR">pic.twitter.com/5dN485PyRR</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1603686395805040640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 16, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“Xav was obviously terrific, made some great plays in the pocket. Derrick I thought did a good job early in the game of just hitting the rollers and letting those guys get going,” coach Chase Buford said.

South East Melbourne should expect a steady dose of penetration on Sunday, after United picked apart their stay-at-home defence on the roller in the Throwdown and SEM had some uncharacteristic defensive lapses on ball movement.

“There was just some inexplicable squaring off the ball and they get penetration to the rim unharmed,” coach Mitchell said.

“There were times when we had responsibility to contain the ball and we weren’t great with that tonight.”

Watch for Walton and DJ Vasiljevic to get to the basket early, then look to feed their big men more as the game wears on after falling away in that aspect on Friday.

“Maybe we weren’t able to get to that enough throughout the course of the game, I think we shot way too many threes tonight,” Buford said.

“We had some great looks so it’s hard to fault individuals, but just in general I thought we had a tonne of success getting to the rim, hitting the roller.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jordi going wild ?<br><br>Live on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Foxtel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Foxtel</a> <a href="https://t.co/TNsrUdJD8M">pic.twitter.com/TNsrUdJD8M</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1603692484093251585?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 16, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That’s not the only thing the Kings will be borrowing from Melbourne, who turned pressure defence into transition scores with monotonous regularity on Thursday, leaving the Phoenix hungry to redeem themselves.

“That’s fine, they can be motivated, we’re excited to go and play them too,” Buford said.

“I think we've got a good game plan for them, Melbourne probably showed as a bit of a blueprint last night, especially running the ball down the floor, so we’ll hope to do a lot of those same things on Sunday.”

Of course, the key for SE Melbourne to stop the Kings’ running game is put the ball in the bucket.

They were bullied by big brother on Thursday and Alan Williams had a shocker around the rim, but if his word is to be believed that won’t be happening again.

“I put myself in a position to get where I wanted, if you watched the game y’all saw that, a lot of times I was going in there looking for contact,” he said.

“They did a really good job and I take it on my shoulders and say I wasn’t good enough and I wasn’t physical enough, they ‘out-physicalled’ us and that starts with me.”