Preview: Adelaide v New Zealand (Round 14)

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 8 January, 2023
Where: Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel, Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

New Zealand 89 (Brown 22, Pardon 19, Brantley 17) d Adelaide 83 (Cleveland 17, Franks 14, Galloway 13) – Round 7 at Trusts Arena, Auckland

This was a high-quality back-and-forth affair in Round 7 that featured eight ties and seven lead changes, Adelaide’s biggest lead being 10 in the second term and the Breakers’ seven in the final period. At that point, Antonius Cleveland and Sunday Dech sparked an 11-4 Sixers run that tied the game, but a late banked triple from Barry Brown proved the adage you’re better to be lucky than good, sending the Trusts Arena crowd into delirium.

What happened last game?

Brown and Co kept the New Plymouth crowd in suspense in another thrilling game, jumping Perth in the third term and hanging on grimly as Bryce Cotton, Corey Webster and Brady Manek went within a whisker of forcing overtime. Adelaide set another record for largest basketball crowd in South Australian history and made their fans earn it too, recovering a late eight-point deficit with a Cleveland-inspired 17-0 run that blew the Adelaide Entertainment Centre roof off.

What’s working?

Paint pressure – The Breakers were impotent at the basket during their three-game skid, averaging 17.7 two-point baskets and being outscored 201-142 on ‘ones and twos’. Their inside game was back with a vengeance on Wednesday, making 31 deuces at 67 per cent and smashing Perth 76-58 on ‘ones and twos’. Impressively, the perimeter trio of Brown, Rayan Rupert and Izayah Le’afa scored 34 of New Zealand’s 60 points in the paint at 74 per cent.

O-board dominance – Before CJ Bruton’s mini-training camp the 36ers averaged 9.1 o-boards, but in six games since they’ve dominated with 15.2 at a brilliant 38 per cent. Kai Sotto and Robert Franks have corralled 2.0 per night, Daniel Johnson 1.8 and Cleveland 1.7 as they’ve done it by committee. With NZ ranking eighth in defensive rebounding percentage, this is as a key area for Adelaide to expose their aggressive defensive schemes.

What needs stopping?

Waiting for AC – Forget the Cardiac Kings, CJ Bruton’s men are the NBL’s new heart-starters, and they love waiting for the final quarter to get their crowd and their defence going. In their past four home Ws they’ve given up an average of 69 points by three-quarter-time (92 per 40 minutes) but just 18.3 in the final period (73 per 40 minutes). It’s invariably Cleveland who ups the voltage in the fourth as Adelaide up their rate of turnovers forced from 8.7 per 40 minutes to 16, but they need others to apply heat earlier against a quality team like NZ.

Adelaide’s benchies – Four games ago the 36ers ranked eighth in bench scoring at 22.3ppg and eighth in bench minutes. But slide Daniel Johnson to the second unit and bring in Ian Clark and things change quickly, the Sixers’ reserves averaging an NBL-best 40.7ppg the past three games – with 26ppg from DJ and IC – going +64 over opposition benches. Most importantly, they are +22 in the final five minutes of the first, second and third terms of those three contests (Adelaide are -14 across the rest) as their depth comes to the fore.

Who’s matching up?

Robert Franks v Jarrell Brantley – Do you think Robo likes big Adelaide crowds? In their home streak he’s piled on 17.4ppg at 52 per cent, with the Sixers a team-high +46 with him on the floor. He’s only had five boards in two games against NZ though, and needs to stand up on the glass. Brantley averaged 19.5ppg and 9.5rpg in those clashes, shooting 9/13 inside as he dominated Franks, a repeat of which would likely deliver victory to the Breakers.

Antonius Cleveland v Barry Brown Jr – New Zealand’s classy swingman scored 22 points in both match-ups against Adelaide, his team +30 in his 52 minutes. He was a reserve back then, but now as a starter will go head-to-head with Cleveland from tip-off. AC is in rare all-around form, the 36ers’ 5-1 charge coinciding with their small forward averaging 16.7ppg, 8.0rpg, 3.7apg, 2.8 steals and 1.7 o-boards, his energy the key to Adelaide’s running game.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hustlin&#39; at ???? ends!<br><br>? - <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/bSVt31VcuZ">pic.twitter.com/bSVt31VcuZ</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1611305804841521153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 6, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

While Illawarra’s zone gave the 36ers a few issues on Friday night, Antonius Cleveland has a very simple solution.

“The zone was tough but we got to the rim with ease and just missed lay-ups, it’s kind of on us. If I make my lay-ups the game probably doesn’t come down to the wire like that,” he said before providing some self-advice.

“Dunk the ball instead of laying it up, make it go down and don’t mess around. It can’t rim out if I put it in there.”

The ability of the Hawks’ changing defence to throw Cleveland and Co out of rhythm highlights the 36ers are a team looking to settle after recent flux.

They are producing periods of all-world basketball – like the string of triples that buried the Hawks – followed by stretches of disjointed hoops, but AC can just feel the chemistry growing.

“Kicking it ahead to Ian, I just feel like that shot is going in, or when I find Robo and he’s open, I just feel like all those shots are going in,” Cleveland said.

“That’s probably just the best thing about it all, having confidence in those guys shooting it. And DJ running the floor, even though he missed some lay-ups he got the break started.

“I think we all feed off each other.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">That&#39;s ???????????????! ?<br><br>? - <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> <a href="https://t.co/4i4LhZjAGO">pic.twitter.com/4i4LhZjAGO</a></p>&mdash; Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1611307223644528641?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 6, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The challenge is getting the feeding started, and what coach CJ Bruton didn’t like was during the dry spell against the zone, his team didn’t generate easy scores from the other end.

“While they slowed us down a little bit, and we took our time getting into stuff, as you do versus a zone, at the defensive end they were turning the corner, our rules weren’t really working,” he said.

“We went to switching everything and being able to jam them and cause some problems.”

Ultimately it was Cleveland’s energy causing the match-winning problems, as it usually has been in the 36er’s 5-1 run since Round 11.

“Sometimes there are plays to be made and I just try to make them, whether it’s getting my hand on a steal or rebounding and pushing the break, I just try to always stay aggressive and stay on the attack,” he said.

“We waited a bit too late to turn it on and we could easily have lost that game, and the way we turned it on is not hard to do, we've just got to learn from it and be ready to play Sunday.”

Bruton knows he needs more defensive leaders on Sunday to create open-court scores against New Zealand, who make ball movement in the half-court difficult with a physicality reminiscent of the post-season.

“I did let them know clearly it’s playoff time,” Bruton said.

“Every game the season’s on the line and I need that sort of effort and energy. In front of a crowd like this (it) makes a big difference and to be able to come away with a win like this is definitely something everyone wants.

“As I told the boys in the locker room, I'm happy for us, but I also know there’s bigger fish to fry, we've got New Zealand walking through the door in less than 48 hours. They're no slouches.

“They just got a win against Perth and we need to make sure we’re ready and prepared. If we want to go toe-to-toe and compete for a championship, they're one of the teams in the way.”

The way home for the Breakers is tough, Sunday’s clash starting a run of four games in seven days – against Adelaide, Perth, Melbourne and Cairns – and an overall run of 10 outings in 27 days to finish the season.

That won’t concern coach Mody Maor, however, who guided his team to a 3-1 record in eight days in October and 4-0 in nine days in November.

Maor saw that mental toughness on show again on Wednesday as they retrieved a double-figure deficit against Perth despite being without floor general Will McDowell-White, who may return on Sunday.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Barry stepped up to the plate last night to help us back into that winning column ?<br><br>23pts <br>6reb<br>6ast <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/MOcfvEDhMp">pic.twitter.com/MOcfvEDhMp</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1610767129300852737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“I think we showed a lot of character and grit getting back into it,” he said.

“I think there was a true show of character when things didn’t go our way and we were 10 down in the first quarter, we gave up some open shots in transition.

“There were some breakdowns that are not characteristic to us, things that have crept into our habits that we really want to weed out and the team really, really responded.

“The guys stepped up and I don’t feel like Perth got anything easy after this, everything they needed to work for, everything was tough.”

The other thing he loved was their superb offensive execution, racking up 97 points at 70 per cent in the key, as they exploited Perth’s interior defence to the tune of 60 paint points.

That’s going to be a crucial avenue for the likes of Dererk Pardon – who had 19 points on 7/8 last time the teams met – against Adelaide’s inconsistent interior and ball-screen defence, and Maor is confident his team can exploit whatever is thrown at them.

“We create advantages, we want to draw two defenders somewhere, move the ball and find the open man,” he said.

“Sometimes that open man is in the paint, sometimes that open man is in the corner, wherever he is.

“We are geared towards reading the cover, drawing the advantage and creating it and taking advantage of it. (Against Perth) some of it was in the paint which was great.”