Your Team's Run Home (Round 17)

Thursday, January 26, 2023

Round 16 is in the books and we're barely any closer to figuring out who will finish where on the ladder.

Sydney failed to take advantage of Cairns' loss to Tasmaina and pull ahead of the pack. In fact, the Kings look at risk now of dropping into second, should results not go their way.

Adelaide's hopes have been all but kissed goodbye thanks to their struggles in Round 16, but South East Melbourne have emerged as a late mover in the race, despite a potential season-ending injury to Ryan Broekhoff.

At this point in time the ladder permutations are bordering on ridiculous. With just two weeks left in the season a team on 16 wins could finish as high as second - or as low as eighth.

NBL Media takes a look at each team's run home as the finals race heats up.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Believe it or not...<br><br>There are results in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> that could see:<br> - 17 wins finish as high as 1st and as low as 4th<br> - 16 wins finish as high as 2nd and as low as 7th<br> - 15 wins finish as high as 3rd and as low as 7th<br> - 14 wins finish as high as 5th and as low as 8th<br><br>? <a href="https://t.co/53ArjleGEf">https://t.co/53ArjleGEf</a></p>— Duncan Berg (@CoachDuncanBerg) <a href="https://twitter.com/CoachDuncanBerg/status/1617302130406326272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Web Teamheader 1920x80 Syd

Position – First
Record – 17-7
Win percentage – 70.83
Point percentage – 110.17

Well that was … unexpected.

The ladder-leading Sydney Kings were afforded an opportunity to break away from Cairns in Round 16, but they dropped both their games and remain just one game clear of the Snakes in second, and since their closest rivals only played once over the weekend, they’ve lost their game in hand.

Three of Sydney’s four remaining games are against teams well and truly jostling for play-in position, and even Adelaide isn’t mathematically out of the hunt yet.

Was Round 16 just a minor blip on the record of the ladder-leaders, or is it indicative of a larger issue coming to a head?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NZBreakers</a> take out the win in an incredible game in front of 14,232 fans in Sydney ?<br><br>The Foot Locker Player of the Game honours go to Jarrell Brantley after an impressive 30 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. <a href="https://t.co/K9JlZoJjm7">pic.twitter.com/K9JlZoJjm7</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1617058207721222144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home:
Tasmania (4^th) – Away
South East Melbourne (7^th) – Home
Adelaide (8^th) – Away
Perth (5^th) – Home

Being one game and percentage behind the Kings in the season run-in means the Taipans will need Sydney to do them a favour, if they’re any chance of topping the ladder. Somewhat fortuitously though, they share three of their final four opponents with the Kings.

If Sydney falters further, the Taipans can not only capitalise by winning their own games – but they could well do so against the same opposition that helped them out. Beating the team that beats your rival at the top of the ladder? That would send a message.

Keanu Pinder returned from injury in their only game of Round 16 – a loss to Tasmania – and looked rusty and off the pace, but expect him to embed himself back into the side sooner rather than later. He wasn’t a front-running MVP candidate before his injury for nothing.

Position – Second
Record – 16-8
Win percentage – 66.67
Points percentage – 103.29

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">He's BACK ?<br>BIG slam from KP!<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/KeanuPinder28?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KeanuPinder28</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/KAvWCsRrSm">pic.twitter.com/KAvWCsRrSm</a></p>— Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1616357501649444865?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home:
South East Melbourne (7^th) – Away
Brisbane (9^th) – Home
Adelaide (8^th) – Home
Perth (5^th) – Away

Position – Third
Record – 14-10
Win percentage – 58.33
Points percentage – 106.58

The Breakers are back. After a shock loss to the bottom-placed Illawarra Hawks to kick off its Round 16, New Zealand rallied and threw a huge spanner in the works at the top of the ladder by defeating the Sydney Kings.

Barry Brown Jr and Izayah le’Afa are yet to return from injury, and the ability to take down the reigning champs and ladder-leaders without two of their stars will fill this Breakers group with an immense amount of confidence.

Playing Brisbane twice and Illawarra once in the final four games may look like easy wins on paper – but the Breakers will know all about the Hawks’ potency, and Brisbane all but ruined Adelaide’s hopes of a finals appearance with a big win of its own.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Stepping up when it matters most ? <br><br>Will & Jarrell combine for 50pts, 15ast & 15reb<br><br>4 regular season games remain, including only ONE final home game, limited tickets get in quick: <a href="https://t.co/1hDzqIimvY">https://t.co/1hDzqIimvY</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNMISSABLE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNMISSABLE</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UNBREAKABLE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UNBREAKABLE</a> <a href="https://t.co/fOfVrosiJK">pic.twitter.com/fOfVrosiJK</a></p>— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1617347105361915904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home:
Brisbane (9^th) – Away
Melbourne (6^th) – Home
Illawarra (10^th) – Away
Brisbane (9^th) – Away

Position – Fourth
Record – 14-11
Win percentage – 56
Points percentage – 103.01

We saw the best and worst of the JackJumpers in Round 16. First, a loss to the Phoenix where their inability to defend without fouling saw South East Melbourne shoot 25 free throws – and hit 20 of them. Second, a gritty, defence-oriented win against a confident Cairns side.

Back-to-back games against the top two sides will provide a great litmus test of the JackJumpers’ abilities heading into a potential play-in appearance, while their clash with the Wildcats will act as an eponymous offence vs defence type of game.

Can Tasmania repeat their NBL22 run of form to close out the season?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It came down to the final minutes, but the JackJumpers prevailed in a ???????? of a second half ?<br><br>Jack McVeigh hit the shots when it counted to earn the Foot Locker Player of the Game ? <a href="https://t.co/s58pNsC75n">pic.twitter.com/s58pNsC75n</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1616382602050666496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home:
Cairns (2^nd) – Away
Sydney (1^st) – Home
Perth (5^th) – Away
Illawarra (10^th) – Away

Position – Fifth
Record – 13-11
Win percentage – 54.17
Points percentage – 100.05

Perth is in an interesting – and likely advantageous – position on the ladder. They’ve played fewer games than all the teams that immediately surround them.

While it gives the Wildcats a greater indication of where they stand in relation to the final days of the season, it could come with some added pressure to perform and added tiredness in the legs approaching crunch time.

Much like Tasmania we saw both sides of the Wildcats in Round 16. Against the Kings their offence was in full flow and they overcame the reigning champs in an offensive shootout. Against the Phoenix they struggled on the glass and got dominated in the second chance points category.

TaShawn Thomas and Brady Manek fired against the Kings, but struggled against South East Melbourne. The pair of import bigs is beginning to loom as the biggest key to Perth’s chances of a post-season run.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">22 points for BC. ?<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN2 via Kayo & Foxtel, or live & free on 10 Peach <a href="https://t.co/795eH6kHhL">pic.twitter.com/795eH6kHhL</a></p>— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1617013720521277441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home:
Illawarra (10^th) – Home
Tasmania (4^th) – Away
Cairns (2^nd) – Home
Sydney (1^st) - Home

Position – Sixth
Record – 14-12
Win percentage – 53.85
Points percentage – 101.77

The Phoenix have officially made their move in the run for a play-in position. Their wins over fellow finals contenders Tasmania and Perth have seen them leapfrog crosstown rivals Melbourne into the top six – albeit on percentage.

The largest talking point to come out of Round 16 is almost certainly the serious looking groin injury suffered by co-captain and sharpshooter Ryan Broekhoff.

Those with long memories will remember the capitulation that happened to the Phoenix when Broekhoff went down injured at the back end of NBL22.

Is history doomed to repeat itself and South East Melbourne miss playoffs, or have the Phoenix learnt enough from their experiences to push through the absence of one of their key leaders?

With their remaining games coming against the competition’s top two sides, if the likely Broekhoff-less Phoenix can make scrape into the Play-In they may be the last side anyone wants to come up against.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Creek getting the 4??th on the way with 4?? points! ?<br><br>? Tune in on <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAu</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KayoSports</a> | ESPN2 <a href="https://t.co/DgBiCEFmMT">pic.twitter.com/DgBiCEFmMT</a></p>— South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1617016428028362754?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home:
Cairns (2^nd) – Home
Sydney (1^st) – Away

Web Teamheader 1920x80 Utd

Position – Seventh
Record – 14-12
Win percentage – 53.85
Points percentage – 100.31

It isn’t panic stations for Melbourne United just yet – but there will be some doubts creeping into the mind of the United faithful that their side left their late season run just a smidge too late.

Although they beat Adelaide in their only game of Round 16, United have dropped out of the top six on percentage – but at just over one percentage point behind crosstown rivals South East Melbourne in sixth, they’re absolutely breathing down the necks of the finals positions.

Like the Phoenix, Melbourne only has two games to play to round out the regular season. Unlike the Phoenix, both games aren’t against the top two.

While the Breakers seem to have re-found their vigour in their win over Sydney, Melbourne can take confidence out of the fact it beat its final opponent of the season – Adelaide – on the weekend just gone.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tuck's got 2??0?? <br><br>?: ESPN on Kayo Sports or Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/th3flighttuck?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@th3flighttuck</a> <a href="https://t.co/VQIMvRcVLk">pic.twitter.com/VQIMvRcVLk</a></p>— Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1616747326852444161?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home:
New Zealand (3^rd) – Away
Adelaide (8^th) – Home

Web Teamheader 1920x80 Ade

Position – Eighth
Record – 11-14
Win percentage – 44
Points percentage – 97.72

While the 36ers are still mathematically in with a chance of making the top six, it might be about time to unofficially rule them out of contention.

There’s only one scenario in which the 36ers can play a role in the NBL23 post-season. They need to win all three of their remaining games and hope two of Perth, Tasmania, South East Melbourne and Melbourne end the season on 14 wins as well.

That would involve Tasmania, South East Melbourne and/or Melbourne failing to win again this season, and/or Perth winning one of its remaining four games.

If the 36ers take care of their end of the bargain and register wins over Cairns, Sydney and Melbourne, they’ll put themselves in a position where it could happen ... but it’s highly unlikely they play again in NBL23 after their final regular season game.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Final.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAreSixers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeAreSixers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SwoopTheHoop?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SwoopTheHoop</a> <a href="https://t.co/W2c5ZCQHzS">pic.twitter.com/W2c5ZCQHzS</a></p>— Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Adelaide36ers/status/1616750053292642305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home:
Cairns Taipans (2^nd) – Home
Sydney Kings (1^st) – Home
Melbourne United (6^th) – Away

Position – Ninth
Record – 8-17
Win percentage – 32
Points percentage – 91.62

The Bullets of Round 16 is what everyone was expecting to see from Round 1. Tyler Johnson hitting clutch shots, Nathan Sobey scoring at will, Harry Froling providing a spark off the bench and Aron Baynes dominating the paint.

While Froling will, unfortunately, play no further part in the season due to being the victim of an alleged assault, the Bullets will still be hoping to round out their season with a bang.

It was Froling who stated his side wanted to ruin the hopes of other sides in the run-in, and that’s exactly what the Bullets did to Adelaide with their heart-stopping overtime win.

Although they won’t be playing in the post-season, they could yet still have a massive influence on it.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OK TJ ?<br><br>The Bullets are taking a three-point lead into the final quarter - and Tyler Johnson finished the third in style ?<br><br>Catch the action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/d27M5lyfwN">pic.twitter.com/d27M5lyfwN</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1616014371146326019?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home:
New Zealand (3^rd) – Home
Cairns (2^nd) – Away
New Zealand (3^rd) – Home

Web Teamheader 1920x80 Ill

Position – Tenth
Record – 3-22
Win percentage – 12
Points percentage – 88.27

After weeks on weeks on weeks of near misses the Illawarra Hawks finally did it. They won a game of NBL basketball and, in the process, hammered a nail into the coffin of New Zealand’s top-two hopes.

The Hawks have been out of finals contention for most of the season, but their consistent effort levels has seen them push just about every opponent they’ve faced to the absolute brink in order to come away with a win.

There would be hardly a neutral fan out there who wasn’t stoked to see the Hawks finally get rewarded for all their hard work – especially with the fashion it happened. Tyler Harvey’s half-court winner could go down in history as one of the all-time great NBL shots.

Like the Bullets, the Hawks will be in the remainder of NBL23 for a good time, not a long time, but they can definitely cause a few headaches on the way.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TYLER HARVEY TO WIN THE GAME. HE IS MAGIC ?<br><br>UNRIVALLED DRAMA<br><br>WHAT A GAME OF NBL BASKETBALL ? <a href="https://t.co/218UNw8XkS">pic.twitter.com/218UNw8XkS</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1615989417155637250?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Their run home
Perth (5^th) – Home
New Zealand (3^rd) – Home
Tasmania (4^th) - Home