Stat Chat - Round 13, NBL24 (What's hot and what's not)

Statistics ... whether you love them or hate them, stats play a huge part in sport.

Whether it's when recruiting a player, how teams prepare, how a starting five is set up, or just about any facet of the game, numbers are crunched and relied upon as fact. 

This year, 2018 NBL Champion and expert commentator Pete Hooley will once again be our resident stats man on NBL.com.au to provide a rundown of all the key numbers heading into a new round of games.  

Keep an eye out after every round for the latest edition of 'Stat Chat'. 

What’s hot – 18
One positive that Adelaide can take away from this weekend was their ball movement. The 36ers averaged 18 assists across their two losses and a lot of that was due to them getting Isaac Humphries the ball close to the basket and letting the big man go to work.

What’s not – 9
Two really poor third quarters cost the 36ers any chance of getting a win during the round. Not only did they manage to score just 21 points in both periods, they only hit a total of nine field goals during that span. Their nine of 41 from the floor in those quarters combined about sums up their struggles. 

What’s hot – 12
Brisbane bounced back with a desperate win against the Phoenix and while Nathan Sobey was a major reason why, it was their defence in the clutch moments which helped the Bullets secure the game. Brisbane had 12 combined blocks and steals in this game, with seven blocks one of their better performances of NBL24.

What’s not – 26
There’s a fine line between playing good physical defence and being undisciplined and the Bullets were right on that during their game. Brisbane committed 26 fouls, which led to 35 Phoenix free-throws, and if it wasn’t for South East missing 13 of those attempts, it could have been a very different ball game. 

What’s hot – 78
The gap between Cairns’ best and worst is way too big right now, but we saw exactly how damaging they can be once again against United. The Taipans held the most lethal offensive team in the league to just 78 points and came away with their second win over the ladder-leaders for NBL24.

What’s not – 20
The Taipans didn’t just lose the rebound count to Sydney in their first game of the round, they were obliterated. Cairns lost that by 20 and gave up a whopping 62 rebounds to the Kings, 24 of them on the offensive end and it was no surprise they came up well short in this game. 

What’s hot – 81.6
Another masterclass from Justin Tatum’s men as they continue to climb the ladder into an unlikely Play-In berth. Offensively, they’ve always had enough pieces from what we have seen, but defensively is where they look on another level right now. Across the seven games under Tatum, the Hawks are giving up a league best 81.6 points per game and it’s showing how effective they can be, with a 5-2 record.

What’s not – 18
One thing that the Hawks will want to fix up is their defensive rebounding efforts. It’s a stark contrast for this team compared to what they do on the offensive glass, ranking fourth in the league in that area. Unfortunately, they are second last in defensive boards and that showed by giving up 18 offensive rebounds to Adelaide and giving them multiple chances to try and come back in this contest. 

What’s hot – 16
One positive that Dean Vickerman will be taking from this game is the fact that Melbourne managed to force 16 turnovers on Cairns, despite their struggles in the game. Cairns does have a knack for throwing the ball away under pressure and it was guys like Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova who were catalysts in that area, combining for five steals.  

What’s not – 16
It’s very rare that a team can have 16 more field goal attempts than an opposition and still lose by 17 points. Yet that is precisely what occurred in the game against Cairns. United looked like a team that hadn’t played in eight days and were punished accordingly. Melbourne shot 32/81 from the floor, while Cairns shot 35/66. 

What’s hot – 4
Is there any hotter team in the competition than New Zealand right now? Perhaps a better question, is there a more consistent starting role player than Mantas Rubstavicius? The Next Star has been a revelation for the Breakers across their win streak, scoring over 15 points in four consecutive games.

What’s not – 16
Very rarely do you see a team win on the road when allowing the home team to make more than 10 threes, yet somehow the Breakers found a way. Tasmania hit 16 threes, including Sean Macdonald making seven himself and when you compare that to just the six made from New Zealand, it’s even more impressive how they managed to get the win in enemy territory.

What’s hot – 3
The reason that Perth are where they are right now is their defence. They switched things up after five rounds and have been elite on that end, but let’s not take anything away from how they are putting up big scores every single night. The Wildcats notched up their third consecutive 100-point game this round against Adelaide and they look every bit the serious title contender. 

What’s not – 38
Yes, I’m going to stick on this point because it does concern me as we get towards the business end of the season. The superstar and current MVP leader, Bryce Cotton, is playing a mammoth 38 minutes a game and is looking like he is unstoppable. While his motor is unmatched around the league, I just wonder how much rest the Wildcats can afford to give him before the finals come around. Pat Miller plays the second-most minutes in the league at just over 32.

What’s hot – 6
With injuries, ejections and a whole lot more troubling the Phoenix right now, it would be a pleasant surprise for Mike Kelly to see other contributors step up when needed. South East had six players score in double-figures during their loss to Brisbane, which is exactly what they need to take pressure off guys like Alan Williams and Mitch Creek to carry the load.

What’s not – 6:44
It wasn’t the sole reason that they lost, but Gary Browne’s brain fade with 6:44 left in the game didn’t help the Phoenix's chances. Mike Kelly labelled it as “selfish” and he means that in the way that a silly mistake such as Browne's can change the game. 

What’s hot – 29
Happy early Valentine’s Day to all Sydney fans. Denzel Valentine has been down on production recently, but he may have found his niche as their sixth man punch. In their big win over Cairns, Valentine put up 29 points in just 23 minutes and sparked this Kings team to a well overdue win. Could this be the swing of fortunes they need? 

What’s not – 29 
It’s been well documented about Sydney’s defensive struggles but we saw a different intent against Cairns on the weekend. Much like I already described in this piece, there is a fine line between being physical defensively and undisciplined. The 29 fouls committed by the Kings led to 29 free-throws from the Snakes. That's not sustainable for a winning side.

What’s hot – 23
Big shoutout to the development player who had a career night on the weekend, putting up 23 points on seven made threes. Sean Macdonald turned down more enticing offers in the off-season to remain under Scott Roth and it’s clearly paying dividends. 

What’s not – 52
This Tasmania team just isn’t as locked in on that defensive end that they need to be right now. The JackJumpers allowed the Breakers to shoot 52 per cent from the floor to put up 98 points and sink them to another loss. If they don’t get back to buying in on that end, it could be trouble.