R15 Preview: Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 10 March, 2022

Where: John Cain Arena, Melbourne

Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Sky Sports NZ


Who won the last time?
Melbourne 93 (Lual-Acuil 22, Dellavedova 18, Goulding 16) d Perth 87 (Cotton 31, Norton 21, Law 12) – Round 11, John Cain Arena, Melbourne

In a brilliant game of NBL basketball, Perth screeched out of the blocks with a 29-16 opening term, fuelled by 18 points from Bryce Cotton and Mitch Norton. But the empire struck back, and hard, a staggering 27 second-quarter points from Chris Goulding and Jo Lual-Acuil the meat in a 62-24 run that put Melbourne 23 ahead late in the third. Not done, the 'Cats clawed the margin back to six with 2:10 to play, but they couldn’t get over the final hump.


What happened last start?

It took a little longer for the Melbourne offence to get going against Brisbane, but they poured in 59 points in the final 20 minutes to ease away. While United ran hard off d-boards and turnovers as always, Dean Vickerman would have loved watching his team’s half-court offence produce 62 points at 63 per cent after opposition scores and dead-ball turnovers.

Surrounding that fast start in Melbourne, the Wildcats lost nine first quarters by a combined 81 points, but found a solution in Adelaide, leading by seven at quarter-time, 16 at the main break and never looking back. That solution was defence; in the two first quarters Perth have won in the past 10 rounds they conceded 18.0 points, compared to 25.6 in nine others.


Who’s in form?

Jo Lual-Acuil – JLA didn’t miss a beat returning from the birth of his baby boy, racking up 20 points, eight rebounds, two steals and two blocks in just 24:25 against Brisbane, shooting 7/11 from inside. He was just 1/5 from deep, however, and other than his perfect long-range night in the Throwdown, is 5/20 in his past nine games. Perth’s bigs better not fall for his shot fake.

Bryce Cotton – While Jo is making a serious claim for MVP, he’s still got to wrestle it off Bryce, whose past two games have delivered a quiet 47 points at 50 per cent, 10/16 from the arc, 12 assists and just four turnovers. He torched Melbourne for 31 points at 50 per cent, six boards and four dimes in Round 11, but Perth struggled to score during his quiet periods.


Who needs to be?

Jesse Wagstaff – Flopping has been rewarded less often in recent weeks, and a number of times that’s left Wagstaff on his backside as play goes on, hurting his team on D. Jesse’s managed just four points on 1/5 shooting and six fouls the past two games, and given he shoots 52 per cent from deep in Perth wins, they need their wily veteran firing again on Thursday.

Chris Goulding – CG43’s 16 points on 5/16 shooting against Perth last time don’t look impressive, but with United 13 down in the second term he changed the game, feeding JLA for a deuce to get the ball rolling, then nailing 5/7 in the next six minutes, before capping it off by finding Lual-Acuil again for a dunk that tied the scores. Perth can’t give him any space.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">???? ????? ???????? ?????? <a href="https://t.co/PVg0lUaI6M">pic.twitter.com/PVg0lUaI6M</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1492431583793811458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>



Who’s statting up?

 - In the second half against Brisbane, United hit just 3 triples but scored 50 points from ‘ones and twos’. In their 18-minute 62-24 run against Perth in Round 11, they scored 41 from ‘ones and twos’ and nailed 7/13 from deep

 - Perth average a league-best 33 points from triples, accounting for 37 per cent of their total score, equal-highest with Tasmania. In wins, Melbourne average 31.4 points from treys, 35 per cent of their total, but in losses that is just 21 points, 26 per cent of their total

 - Melbourne are pulling in 77 per cent of d-boards and 30 per cent of o-boards. Last year, Perth’s rebounding percentages were 76 and 31, but in NBL22 that has slumped to 69 and 28

 - In Round 11 against United, the Wildcats managed just 62 per cent of defensive rebounds. Last season the Cats allowed the fewest o-boards in the NBL (8.3), this season they give up the most (12.2). In losses they allow 14.7, compared to 10.8 in wins    


Who’s matching up?

Jack White v Vic Law – White’s NBL win-loss record is 22-2 and there’s good reason for that. This guy could become the modern-day Andrew Vlahov with his ability to play multiple frontcourt spots, score inside and out, rebound, defend, handle the ball and do anything his team needs to win. He trails only Caleb Agada in Melbourne’s per-minute +- differential.

Usually what his team needs is defence. Last week it was Lamar Patterson and Robert Franks, on Thursday it’s Law. In Round 11, Vic nailed the game’s first triple, but managed just nine points on 4/17 shooting after that as the future Boomer shut him down. Law’s past three games have produced 63 points, can he break White’s chains in the rematch?


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">RESPECT THE LAW! ? <a href="https://t.co/3HldjUKMpt">pic.twitter.com/3HldjUKMpt</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1492430838461788165?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Who’s talking the talk?

Melbourne United had a bit to talk about before they played Perth in Round 11, knowing the game would be a battle of contrasting styles.

“It was a good challenge tonight as a coaching staff and as a group to say, ‘Do we go down to a small ball group?’,” coach Dean Vickerman said.

“I think we shut that down very quickly, we believe in the mobility of Jo and Ariel to really be able to step out and guard the perimeter where they're required to close out Jesse Wagstaff, close out Vic Law on the perimeter.

“Then we just felt it was obviously going to be a rebounding advantage at the offensive end with them playing small ball, and obviously some post advantages.

“Their small ball group, numbers wise has been unbelievable.”

They were unbelievable early on in Round 11. Perth led by five when Luke Travers and Jesse Wagstaff entered the game, and the 'Cats unleashed an 18-8 run in just over six minutes with their versatile line-up spreading the floor.

Bryce Cotton had 10 points and two assists in that burst, while Travers had a pair of buckets at the cup, one off a feed from the MVP.

Something had to change for Melbourne, and while their 37-point second quarter got the headlines, the real difference was at the other end, holding Perth to 32 across the middle periods.

“I feel a lot of it was Shea Ili,” Jo Lual-Acuil said.

“He came in, gave us a lot of good energy, blowing stuff up, I know I hear a lot of people talking about defensive player of the year, but I feel Shea could be in that conversation every single year.”


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Now we&#39;re playing Melbourne United basketball <a href="https://t.co/TryQnbjfRQ">pic.twitter.com/TryQnbjfRQ</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1492441921490665472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


When Ili checked into the game in the second stanza, the Wildcats still led by nine and Cotton had already amassed 16 points.

When Ili next headed to the bench, midway through the third term, Bryce had added just three more points on 1/6 shooting and United led by 10.

“Bryce, we fouled him, we did the things we didn’t want to do to him early on and then Shea just got into him, made his life really difficult,” Vickerman said.

“It takes everybody on the team to guard Bryce Cotton and I thought everyone was pretty alert to the pressure Shea was putting on him and helped him on back cuts.”

Melbourne would extend that lead to 23 in one of NBL22’s most devastating runs, turning the Wildcats’ small-ball line-up from a strength to a weakness by pulling in eight o-boards from 14 misses in that 18-minute spurt and shutting down their defensive keyway.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Can we talk about this Ariel Hukporti block?! ? <a href="https://t.co/z4XAILUFQK">pic.twitter.com/z4XAILUFQK</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1492448120466456577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


“That was pretty rough for us and you’ve got to give them credit for not deviating from their game plan when they went down in the first quarter,” Wildcats coach Scott Morrison said.

“I think there was four or five where if we had of just boxed out we would have given ourselves a chance to get the rebound.

“You're not going to get all of them, but we are a small team and we can’t afford to give them free ones by not boxing out or not seeing back-cutters late in the shot clock.

“I think rebounding has a lot more to do with heart and execution than height. Height’s obviously helpful, everyone wants to be a little bit taller, but there’s been great rebounders in the history of the game that aren't as tall as the guy they're outrebounding.”

Perth did deviate from their game plan, implementing a box-and-one defence on Chris Goulding that held United to just four points in the opening five minutes of the final period.

“I can’t tell you the last time I called for a box-and-one at any level, but it felt like we needed to try something different,” Morrison said.

“They started to dice it up pretty good later in the quarter, but it did help us get back in the game.”


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Matthew Dellavedova with the SWEET behind the back dime to Jo Lual-Acuil for the triple ?<br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL22?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL22</a> live on <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNAusNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ESPNAusNZ</a> + <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kayosports</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/siRefcXjyW">pic.twitter.com/siRefcXjyW</a></p>&mdash; The NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1500040416615297026?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


That dicing was done by Delly, who scored nine points in the final five minutes to put Perth to bed just as they appeared set to run over the top.

“We've got some crazy high-IQ guys on this team, they figured it out, they put Chris in some screening action, Delly put him in that, it was smart for us,” Vickerman said.

It sets up a classic rematch on Thursday, in what could well be a playoff preview.

With Matt Hodgson out, Jo Lual-Acuil again becomes a walking mismatch, so expect some more junk defences from the 'Cats, deployed in short bursts to keep Melbourne guessing.

The much-maligned Michael Frazier becomes a key man with his ability to defend on the perimeter and swoop onto the glass.

The under-performing import averaged 7.1 rebounds in his first seven NBL games, but has pulled in just 3.7rpg since.

Of course, United’s defence will be focused on Cotton with a side-serving of Law, meaning Perth’s role players need to be ready to capitalise on the space that provides them.

In the first quarter of the Round 11 clash, the Wildcats scored 20 points from ‘ones and twos’ – with 11 of those from the supporting cast – as they attacked the gaps, while in the final 30 minutes they managed just 34.

“That’s just Bryce, it doesn’t matter if he has a slow start, he’s going to come out and play the game the right way and create shots for other guys,” Mitch Norton said.

“If you're ready to shoot and stay aggressive he’s going to create looks for everyone else and I think that’s what we went away from, everyone staying aggressive and trying to get a foot in the paint.”