Preview: South East Melbourne v Cairns (Round 17)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Wednesday 25 January, 2023
Where: State Basketball Centre, Melbourne
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won the last time?

Cairns 94 (McCall 24, Scott 19, Hogg 16) d South East Melbourne 85 (Creek 25, Broekhoff 17, Williams 16) – Round 14 at Cairns Convention Centre

The Phoenix owned the opening 11 minutes in Cairns in Round 14, but from there it was all Taipans as the Snakes peeled off a 52-22 run over the next 16 minutes. Shannon Scott and Tahjere McCall were involved in everything as they combined for 43 points and 11 assists for the game. Mitch Creek and Ryan Broekhoff led a big charge in the final 11 minutes that pulled the Phoenix within five points in the final minute, but too much damage had already been done.

What happened last game?

South East Melbourne are hoping Broekhoff's groin is alright sooner rather than later. The injury suffered bt the sharpshooter put a serious dampener on an otherwise comprehensive and impressive 21-point win over Perth. In his absence pressure will be on Trey Kell to step up his rebounding and shooting output. The Taipans’ six-game winning streak came to an end in a brutal clash with Tasmania, and the game featured as many turnovers as assists and the JackJumpers emerged the better from the UFC-style clash.

What’s working?

ROY Waardenburg – While many of Australian basketball’s greatest names are on the NBL’s Rookie of the Year trophy, there has never been a winner from New Zealand. Sam Waardenburg was set to change this year until the decision to scrap it. His past five games have delievered 12.0ppg at 57 per cent with 6.6rpg as Cairns have gone 6-1. However, in that loss last Friday the Waardenburg only had two boards and seemingly took a backwards step with Keanu Pinder back in uniform, and the Taipans will need all hands on the glass against the Phoenix.

Lane catches – The Phoenix shot a blistering 31/44 inside the paint (70 per cent) against Perth last round and assisted on 17 of those buckets as they created inside looks through dump-offs, pocket passes, hard rolls and short rolls. A further eight of their paint makes came off offensive rebounds – they pulled in 19 boards at that end of the floor at a remarkable 51 per cent – as their penetration regularly forced opposition bigs to help. Cairns must make a priority of stopping SEM getting any type of catches around the hoop.

What needs stopping?

Alan Williams – 'Big Sauce' was the chief destroyer inside against the Wildcats. He went 11/14 in the key and grabbed seven offensive boards en route to a staggering stat-line of 27 points, 14 rebounds and six assists. Across two meetings with Cairns, the bull-strong import has accumulated 34 points on 13/24 shooting, 18 boards and 10 assists, while drawing 14 fouls. The Phoenix have been +3 with him on the floor and -21 in the other 35 minutes against the Snakes so far this season. This is a big job for Pinder.

Shannon the hesitant – Shannon Scott’s six games without Pinder produced 16.2ppg on 10.5 field-goal attempts, with the guard nailing 57 per cent of his looks. His past six games with Pinder have delivered just 7.0ppg on 6.8 FGA, and he's made just 34 per cent of his attempts from the field and 37 per cent from outside – including four points on 1/6 as Cairns were held to 77 points by Tassie. The Snakes are better with Scott aggressive - they're 11-1 when he hits multiple triples and 5-7 when he doesn’t.

Who’s missing key men?

The Phoenix will be without Ryan Broekhoff (groin), while Mirko Djeric (illness) is sidelined for the Taipans.

Who’s matching up?

The frontcourts – What an intriguing battle this is. Will Mitch Creek get the job on Pinder given his speed? But do the Phoenix want Williams chasing Waardenburg to the perimeter? Can Dane Pineau keep up with Majok Deng? Will Reuben Te Rangi again spend minutes at the five-spot and perhaps use his mobility and strength against Waardenburg? At the other end, who can keep Williams and Creek away from the hoop? Expect some big frontcourt numbers.

Gary Browne v Bul Kuol – Of course, South East Melbourne's dynamic frontcourt duo thrives on good delivery, and that’s where Browne comes in. With Broekhoff sidelined the floor won’t be as spread as usual, and if Kuol can use his length to push Browne away from his preferred spots without fouling it allows the Snakes to get in the passing lanes and deny inside supply. The Phoenix are now 12-5 with Browne in the line-up and 2-7 without him, so Kuol and company have a huge job to do.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Creek getting the 4??th on the way with 4?? points! ?<br><br>? Tune in on <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAu</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KayoSports</a> | ESPN2 <a href="https://t.co/DgBiCEFmMT">pic.twitter.com/DgBiCEFmMT</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1617016428028362754?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Back in Round 10, Kings coach Chase Buford summed up how many in the NBL feel about going into battle with the relentless JackJumpers.

“I love Scott and Josh Magette and those guys, they're a terrific team, but I don’t know if you ever want to be excited to go and play against the Tassie team,” he said.

South East Melbourne may well have felt the same way when they headed to Launceston on a five-game losing streak with their playoff lives on the line, but they didn’t show it.

Embracing the grit and grind, they out-worked, out-hustled and out-played Tasmania for a huge road win they then backed up against Perth to be sitting in sixth spot.

“Just taking it one game at a time, it’s all in our hands,” Reuben Te Rangi said.

“I think we figured out in Tasmania what we need to do and that’s fight and fight harder than the other team.”

That’s a lesson the Cairns Taipans learned the hard way in Round 16.

“In the first half we played to Tasmania’s game plan and they did a hell of a job with it, I don’t want to say the word wrestle but they slowed us down, right?” coach Adam Forde said.

“We had a couple of little runs, but even then we’d get a little bit of a run on and Tassie did something to counter it, whether it be defensively or at the offensive end, and it just seemed to be well-timed momentum shifts back in their favour, that’s one thing we’re going to need to work on.”

Tempo control is key for the Taipans, who rely on their fair share of transition buckets to run up a winning score.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">AIRPLANE MODE ??<br>Waardenburg throws DOWN the inside pass!<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/SamWaardenburg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SamWaardenburg</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/fR9GlvgkhU">pic.twitter.com/fR9GlvgkhU</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1616371685082697729?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“That’s the scout for us, every team does it,” Forde said.

“They're going to try and slow us down and for stretches it’s effective, and then we have those moments where we open up the floodgates and run with it.”

The Phoenix will look to control the tempo via the glass.

Last time these teams met, while the Snakes slithered home against a depleted opponent, South East dominated the overall rebounding percentage 57-43.

They took that to new heights against Perth, winning rebounding percentage an extraordinary 66-34 and owning points in the paint 62-34.

“It’s an area of the game we’re pretty accomplished at, we’re the number one rebounding team in the league, number one offensive rebounding team in the league,” coach Simon Mitchell said.

“At the paint, obviously a huge advantage for us and we haven't been finishing real well the past few games, but I felt like we've positioned ourselves and got good looks, we just haven't finished off our work ...

“It's an area of the game we focus on, we've got Creek, we've got Williams, we post up more than most teams and we attack the rim and get to the free throw line, that’s us when we’re at our best.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Too big, too strong, too good! ??<br><br>? Tune in on <a href="https://twitter.com/10PeachAu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@10PeachAu</a> ?? <a href="https://twitter.com/kayosports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KayoSports</a> | ESPN2 <a href="https://t.co/7uHZJhtUwO">pic.twitter.com/7uHZJhtUwO</a></p>&mdash; South East Melbourne Phoenix (@SEMelbPhoenix) <a href="https://twitter.com/SEMelbPhoenix/status/1617014011954098176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Taipans were -16 on points in the paint last time against SEM, and will be relieved to have Keanu Pinder on board this time around.

While Cairns are 6-0 without their star big man and 10-8 with him – arguably putting paid to his MVP chances – Forde knows having Pinder firing is a key to playoff success, even if that means some growing pains right now.

The NBL22 Most Improved Player was on court for 20 minutes in the loss to Tasmania, adding seven points and three boards, but expect bigger minutes on Wednesday.

“It’s a combination of things we’re navigating, we definitely don’t want to look too far ahead in terms of how semi-finals are, (but) a big part tonight was we wanted to win but we also had to reintegrate Keanu back in,” Forde said post-game.

“He'll get that feel for the game back, that’s largely what his game’s built on, touch and rhythm and the energy out there ...

“Now we’ve got four games rolling into post-season, we’re definitely not a lock, we’ve got to still win some games to secure our place in the post-season, but if you leave it too late when’s he supposed to get his feel back?”

The Snakes are two games clear in second place with four contests remaining and three games ahead of seventh place.

So while a post-season berth seems assured, and an automatic semi-final spot is in their own hands, for Tahjere McCall it’s all about the brand of basketball they're playing at the pointy end, and that means learning from the loss to Tasmania.

“There’s nothing to regroup, we were never not together,” he said confidently.

“We’ve got to be better, I think everybody knows that, you hate losing especially this time of year, every game matters.

“No matter the position we’re in every game matters, just for your confidence. The hottest team usually has the best success in the playoffs so that’s what we’re trying to strive for.”