Preview: Perth v Cairns (Round 18)

When: 9.30pm (AEDT), Friday 3 February, 2023
Where: RAC Arena, Perth
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Perth 105 (Cotton 24, Thomas 22, Harris 17) d Cairns 83 (Hogg 24, McCall 18, Kuol 11) – Round 11 at Cairns Convention Centre

The Wildcats extended their winning streak over the Snakes to 10 – their last defeat coming in Game 2 of the NBL20 semi finals when Cam Oliver had 22 points and 19 boards – thanks to a dominant first half, with a Luke Travers triple to open the third term extending their margin to 18. The Taipans briefly fought back, but Perth’s high-speed offensive execution and Cairns’ sloppy ball security allowed the visitors to put this one to bed.

What happened last game?

The 'Cats were an offensive force once again in Round 17, at least for 73 minutes. They ran up 106 on the Hawks and had 88 with 7:20 to play in Tasmania, but just four points in the next seven minutes confined them to a crucial L, and they now need two Round 18 wins to guarantee a return to the post-season.

The penultimate round was also a mixed bag for Cairns, losing to South East Melbourne, sweeping the Bullets but then letting second spot slip through their fingers by being outworked by the 36ers. The Taipans now must beat Perth on Friday and hope for some Brisbane brilliance against the Breakers to get direct entry to the semi-finals.

What’s working?

Home cooking – Perth’s offence has been pretty hot everywhere, but since New Year’s they’ve gone to a new level in the Jungle, racking up 105.5ppg on a stunning 13.3 triples at 46 per cent in four home wins. Their deadly marksmanship has opened up the keyway too, the Wildcats outscoring opponents by 60 points from the arc and 19 from the foul line in those four contests, with Cotton going 12/28 from the arc and 30/30 from the stripe.

Attacking the Snakes – It’s no secret Cairns are undermanned inside without Keanu Pinder, who played just 22 minutes in three Round 17 games. In those outings, the Phoenix, Bullets and 36ers shot 58 per cent in the key and the Taipans were -22 on points in the paint and -12 on second chance points. In the final quarter of their losses to South East Melbourne and Adelaide, Adam Forde’s men were outscored 24-14 in the paint.

What needs stopping?

Perth – While Cairns are the number one ranked defence – having kept all their other opponents below 90 points in regulation in 23 of 25 meetings – it turns out 'Cats are faster than Snakes. John Rillie’s men have scored 105 points in both games of this season series, nailing 18/38 (47%) and 16/37 (43%) from range.  The Taipans have committed 36 turnovers to Perth's 20, and the must rectify that to keep Cotton and Co to a losing score.

Tahjere McCall – Cairns usually get the possession game on their terms by disrupting defensively and then playing downhill, and McCall is a master of both. He was outstanding last time against the Wildcats with 18 points – all from within five feet or the foul line – 10 rebounds, five o-boards, four assists and two steals. When Tahj has three thefts or more this season the Taipans are 5-1 and +32 on points from turnovers.

Who’s missing key men?

Tai Webster is a game-time decision for Perth, while Keanu Pinder and Mirko Djeric are sidelined for Cairns with Tahjere McCall an unlikely starter despite flying with the team to Perth.

Who’s matching up?

Brady Manek v Sam Waardenburg – The Taipans are 6-1 when Kiwi Sam rips in seven rebounds or more, compared to 9-8 on his glass-averse nights. Perth are 8-3 when Brady goes manic on the glass with seven caroms or more, but just 6-9 when he’s bored of the boards. Waardenburg is a Next Generation Award finalist, Manek is unlucky not to be, and whichever one does the heavy lifting on Friday could have a big say on the result.

Cairns v Bryce Cotton – Kuol, McCall and Shannon Scott, it’s an impressive Taipans troika of perimeter defenders. That hasn’t perturbed King Cotton, however, the MVP finalist knocking in an identical 24 points at 47 per cent shooting in both games at the Snakepit, draining 8/16 from deep.  Remarkably, he’s outscored Kuol, McCall and Scott combined, who have managed 23.5ppg at 39 per cent. They need to lift at both ends.

Luke Travers v DJ Hogg – James Carville famously said “it’s the economy stupid”. Well, when it comes to defending Cairns in the half-court, it’s DJ Hogg. The All-NBL First Team candidate has averaged 24.3ppg at 67 per cent inside and 11/23 outside the past three games, while adding 3.7 assists for good measure. Travers is the ideal match-up with his length and mobility, will we see TaShawn Thomas cross-matching McCall so LT can lock horns with DJ?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BIG SLAM DJ ??<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/Dj_hogg1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dj_hogg1</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/g2IHmMMYwO">pic.twitter.com/g2IHmMMYwO</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1619272278424027137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 28, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

They say Father Time is undefeated, well fatigue isn’t too far behind in the standings.

Right now, John Rillie is fighting a battle with sports science, and when it comes to back-to-back weekends the rookie coach is losing.

In the final seven minutes of their losses to South East Melbourne and Tasmania the past two Sundays, the Wildcats have been outscored 45-16.

With their ‘big five’ logging an average of 31 minutes in those two contests, they simply haven’t been able to match their fresher counterparts when the game has been on the line. Last weekend, Bryce Cotton played 77:14 of a possible 80 minutes.

“When you're playing a game like you just played in, are you going to put the opportunity in anyone else’s hands?,” Rillie said after the loss to Tasmania.

In reality, Cotton got that opportunity but couldn’t make the most of it.

In those final seven minutes against South East Melbourne and the JackJumpers, the three-time MVP has contributed a total of just two points on 20 per cent shooting as fatigue took its toll. Across the opening 33 minutes of both, he dropped a combined 40 points at 43 per cent.

Of course, coach Rillie and his Wildcats high performance staff mightn’t be worried about just yet, their first priority doing what it takes to clip Cairns in the first game of the final weekend.

“We’ve handled Friday’s lately very well,” Rillie said.

“We’ve had a good week, I feel like we’re going in with a good confident mindset.

“We’ve got a lot to play for so we shouldn’t be worried about our opposition, we do our scouting report and we talk about the opposition but it’s more about our aptitude to the game and our application.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BRADY THAT WAS INSANE! ??? <a href="https://t.co/5MwQxbQ7es">pic.twitter.com/5MwQxbQ7es</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1618944799645777920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 27, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There are some key learnings to take from the loss to Tasmania, most notably defending the three-point line, where they gave up 14 triples at 43 per cent, including five in the final term.

“The way we started that first quarter, not the tone we wanted to start the game with. I think they made six threes,” Rillie said.

“The two times we've played previously they’ve made 14 and 17 threes I believe, so just our effort to eliminate that wasn’t there tonight.”

They’ve held the Taipans to just 28 per cent shooting from deep in two big wins, but any slippage in d-trans will see DJ Hogg, Bul Kuol, Shannon Scott, Sam Waardenburg and Majok Deng all queueing up at the arc.

That Perth have held the Snakes to just 79.5ppg at 42 per cent overall shows how good their defence can be, and veteran Mitch Norton is lost for explanations as to why they can’t do it more often.

“I think we’re a great offensive team, but for us to be excellent offensively we need to get it off the rim rather than taking it out (of the net) and inbounding the ball,” he said.

“I think that’s going to take us to another level, we show patches of it but to be a really good team we need show 40 minutes of it.

“We’re capable, that’s probably the most frustrating thing, we ‘re capable of doing it but these last two games are huge for us and we need 40-minute performances.

“We spoke about it, we watched video, the things that we’re talking about aren't new, so I think that’s something us as a group really need to wake up and realise the points JR and the coaching staff make time and time again.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">With Rashard wide opennnn ? <br><br>Watch live on ESPN via kayo &amp; foxtel <a href="https://t.co/Qn2ePoniuV">pic.twitter.com/Qn2ePoniuV</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1619539422877450246?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 29, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Cairns coach Adam Forde is also searching for answers as to why the Wildcats have owned his team for this season.

“Those are the only two results where we’ve had our butts handed to us, everything else has been relatively close,” he said.

“We've won close ones, we've loss close ones, we've had a couple of nice big wins, but the two Perth results are the ones they really blew it out to double digits quite easily.

“It’s a really good test going into post-season, because they're going to be hungry to secure a good position on the ladder.”

But what sort of Snakes outfit will they face? Potentially one sharing minutes to rest injured bodies.

“We’ll manage some bodies appropriately and we’ll see how things fall in other areas,” Forde said after his team’s loss to Adelaide handed second-spot favouritism to New Zealand.

“You would assume the Breakers take care of business, so losing that top two spot is a quick turnaround from when we play (in Perth), the MVP Ball and potentially a game on the eighth or ninth (of February).

“What we do now is prepare for that game because it’s really important.”