Preview: New Zealand v Sydney (Game 4)

When: 4pm (AEDT), Sunday 12 March, 2023
Where: Spark Arena, Auckland
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo Freebies; Foxtel; Sky NZ; Prime NZ
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Who won the last time?

Sydney 91 (Vasiljevic 15, Soares 14, Simon 13) d New Zealand 68 (McDowell-White 11, Brantley 10, Brown 10, Rupert 10) – Game 3, Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

In the first half Sydney threw away the ball, in the second half they locked down the D and threw away the key. In one of the more remarkable defensive bursts in NBL Finals history, the Kings kept New Zealand without a field goal for more than 11 minutes bracketing the final break and allowed just 21 points in total after intermission at 21 per cent from the floor.

At the other end there were plenty of Sydney-siders willing to do their bit – six Kings scoring between 11 and 15 points – as the champs ran up a season series-high 91 points at 56 per cent inside, 36 per cent outside and a solid 18/25 from the stripe. Chase Buford’s men simply maintained the rage longer than NZ, going +18 on possession points in a 23-point win.

What’s working?

Moving the ball – New Zealand’s defence allows a league-low 14.6 assists per game as they jam the passing lanes and force one-on-one play. That’s exactly what Sydney had averaged in the teams’ first five meetings, well down on their 18.7 season mark. However, on Friday they got the ball humming and racked up 24 dimes with five Kings dealing multiple helpers.

Fifteen of those assists came on possessions with at least two passes, while another four came in transition. In the first half, Sydney had 20 half-court possessions with fewer than two passes that resulted in just 11 points at 36 per cent, one assist and seven turnovers, while the Breakers scored 23 points at 53 per cent on the ensuing possession.

Two-tiered defence – The Kings still had nine half-court possessions with fewer than two passes in the final quarter, but they on average lasted 15 seconds as they managed time, rather than rushing head-long into the defence. That allowed Sydney’s defence to set, force seven of the Breakers’ 12 field-goal attempts to be from long range and then clean the glass. The Kings grabbed 90 per cent of d-boards in the final term and 87 per cent for the game.

Their two-tiered D – with up-and-in pressure on the ball and their bigs sitting in drops – took away looks for dangerous shooters while making paint points nearly impossible, NZ with just 14 inside at 30 per cent. Where Sydney excelled was identifying the right men to leave open; Tom Vodanovich, Tom Abercrombie and Rayan Rupert 3/21 on triples the past two games after taking just seven between them in New Zealand’s Round 16 and Game 1 wins.

What needs stopping?

Forgetting Will – Of course, the man with the class to pick apart that two-tiered defence is Will McDowell-White, who was 4/6 on twos in Game 3 while the rest of Breakers were a wayward 5/20. Midway through the third term NZ led 57-55, and from the 14 possessions with WMW running a ball-screen or DHO had generated 16 points at 55 per cent with no turnovers.

From that moment on they ran that action just six more times – and while the shots weren’t dropping it generated three of their four o-boards for the night – as they were outscored 36-11. On 56 possessions without a WMW ball-screen the Breakers shot 32 per cent with 12 cough-ups, and perhaps need to focus more on their strength and less on getting Justin Simon off the ball.

Early helping – Where Sydney have been hurt defensively is by overcommitting early to help. In the first quarter of Game 3 they conceded two wide-open triples doubling the low post on the catch, before adjusting to double on the move once the NZ bigs lose vision of kick-out options. New Zealand are 8-0 when Jarell Brantley has three or more assists.

Sydney’s other challenge is defending the weakside while helping on ball-screen action. When the nail defender has committed early to stop penetration or tag the roller, the Kings’ corner defenders have not done a good job of splitting the weakside shooters. Rob Loe was a chief beneficiary in the first half of Game 1 and 3, look for the Breakers to target this more.

Who’s missing key men?

Both teams are expected to be at full strength.

Who’s matching up?

Will McDowell-White & Barry Brown v Justin Simon – NZ introduced more guard-to-guard screens in Game 3 that Simon would switch, however it ultimately took them away from their staple. If Justin is going to do the defensive double on WMW and Brown, will New Zealand go at him early and often this time to test him out on a short turnaround? And the Breakers simply must go through one of their star duo whenever Simon is seated.

Izayah Le’afa v DJ Vasiljevic – Le’afa is 6/11 from deep in this series and, along with Rob Loe, shapes as a key target to punish any overplay on McDowell-White, Brown and Brantley. Will we see Abercrombie and Rupert in the dunker spot more on Sunday to open up other shooters? That has certainly worked for Sydney, Vasiljevic with 31 points on 7/16 from deep, 5/8 from inside and four assists in 54 minutes across games two and three.

Rayan Rupert v Angus Glover – Take this in for a minute, Sydney are +40 in this series in the 47 minutes with Glover on the floor, compared to -18 in the other 73 minutes. The next best are Derrick Walton (+25) and Kouat Noi (+23). He embodies the Kings' style; speed, aggression, off-ball movement and fearless shooting. Rupert’s shooting has been anything but fearless, and New Zealand must find a way to get him finishing others’ work at the rim.

Jarell Brantley v Xavier Cooks – Brantley’s Game 3 return of five fouls, five turnovers and four rebounds will not sit well with the proud Breaker, especially after Cooks grabbed five offensive boards to impact the game despite only taking five shots as Jarell and Co shut down his movement. Brantley was dangerous with 10 points on six attempts, but New Zealand need him smart defensively, assertive offensively and on the floor for most of Sunday.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">X-RATED FOR A FRIDAY NIGHT ?<br><br>Catch all the action LIVE on ESPN via Kayo Freebies<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/xJ7BBF4vvr">pic.twitter.com/xJ7BBF4vvr</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1634133704267186178?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

There were many stories from Game 3, and Sydney’s second-half defence obviously stood out, but just as big tale was being told at the other end.

The Kings have made some key adjustments to limit the ability of Will McDowell-White, Barry Brown and Jarell Brantley, while New Zealand have targeted Xavier Cooks and Derrick Walton.

The difference so far has been the ability of other Kings to capitalise on opportunities that arise, and no one has done that better than Justin Simon, who has personified his team’s two-way approach the past two outings.

“He’s just come out and changed the series the last couple of games, his defence on McDowell-White and Brown or whoever he’s matched up on,” coach Chase Buford said.

“He's causing havoc with steals, tonight he had six assists, he’s leading us in scoring over the course of the series.

“It’s just such a bonus to have someone who not only changes the game defensively, but is really buying into his role and understanding how he can impact the game and the series at the other end. He’s doing a great job.”

He’s making others better too. Not only did he dish six dimes on Friday, but all five of his baskets came from his movement out of the corner or the dunker spot, making New Zealand pay for helping off him as a lesser shooter.

Why did DJ Vasiljevic start getting open for his back-breaking third term? Because Simon was running the floor in transition to draw the defence, and sliding along the baseline in the half-court.

Izayah Le’afa and Co were left with the tough choice of giving up certain deuces to the athletic small forward or likely triples to his perimeter buddy.

With all their pieces playing their role, the Kings were able to cut up the usually stingy New Zealand defence to destroy them 48-16 in final 18:30.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TIM LEAVING US ALL SPEECHLESS ?<br><br>Catch all the action LIVE on ESPN via Kayo Freebies<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBLFinals?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBLFinals</a> <a href="https://t.co/n1Y4YyBPbe">pic.twitter.com/n1Y4YyBPbe</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1634139080807022594?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


“I thought in the second half the ball just moved much better than it has in a long time for us,” Buford said.

“It got back to looking like a team we recognise from earlier in the year. We fed off our defence, played off stops, played fast, slowed it down when we needed to and executed.”

Breakers coach Mody Maor was left wondering where to start as he tries to remedy a bunch of woes in less than 48 hours before Game 4.

His team wasn’t able to heed his call for more composure against Sydney’s pressure after last Sunday’s home loss.

While their ability to feed off Kings’ turnovers and rushed possessions in Friday’s first half helped them rack up 47 points, they were never able to consistently execute their half-court sets.

“Obviously a very bad second half from us, it started at the offensive end and trickled down to how we defended,” he said.

“It started with us missing a few good looks at the beginning of the third, becoming tight again and completely not executing.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Name a better float game ?‍?? <a href="https://t.co/MjS4g1WkzN">pic.twitter.com/MjS4g1WkzN</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1634123581440524291?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

As he has all season, Maor is asking his team to go back to the key fundamentals that have driven their success.

“We know who we are and we know we’re not playing to our level for big stretches of the game. We also know that Sydney are a great team and if you lose your focus for a few minutes the game breaks open,” he said.

“I believe in our guys’ ability to put together a good 40 minutes and come back here for Game 5.”

Four-time championship winner Tom Abercrombie holds a similar steely belief, calling on his side to “trust ourselves, trust our system, trust our teammates” as they look to stay alive in front of an expected record Breakers crowd.

“Bloody excited mate, it’s going to be good. I know the people in New Zealand are excited to get us home and we want to go and represent our country and our fans to the best of our ability and put in a much better performance for them,” he said.

“We’ve got to go out there with nothing to lose and trust that we have all the pieces that we need and all the ability that we need and all the intensity that we need to get the job done.”

Sydney experienced that sort of heat in last year’s final game against the JackJumpers, but Vasiljevic knows this New Zealand outfit has greater talent and athleticism than that plucky Tassie side, and they can’t afford a slow start this time around.

“This is the most pressure game you can play in, it’s always hard to close out series,” he said.

“We struggled last year in the first half against Tassie and we were able to find it in the second half, but we’ve got to come in from start to finish on Sunday and try to close this out.”