Preview: New Zealand v Melbourne (Round 15)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 12 January, 2023
Where: Christchurch Arena
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won the last time?

Melbourne 101 (Rathan-Mayes 33, Goulding 24, Tucker 16) d New Zealand 97 (Brown 23, Pardon 23, Le’afa 13) OT – Round 1 at John Cain Arena, Melbourne

United and the Breakers put on barn-burner to open the season. Last year’s wooden-spooners raced to a 12-point first-quarter lead, and Barry Brown Jr and Dererk Pardon's domination in the paint showed ominous early sign for NBL23 opponents. Xavier-Rathan Mayes and Chris Goulding fired back from long range and drained 12 triples between them, and after a classy Brown drive sent the game to overtime it was nine XRM points in the extra period that saw Melbourne home.

What happened last game?

United have now prevailed in six of their past eight games with their most recent triumph being a clinical road win in Tasmania where they put the foot to the floor in the third term before managing the final minutes expertly. In contrast New Zealand have fallen in four of their past six and dropped to third place after giving up a 9-0 run in the final moments in Perth, having been on the brink of a classic road win thanks to Will McDowell-White and Dererk Pardon.

What’s working?

Poise & execution – After a Brad Newley triple put them 10-ahead with 6:45 to play United iced the JackJumpers. Their final 10 half-court possessions lasted an average of 21 seconds and contained just one turnover. Up until that point they’d utilised the advantages of Chris Goulding and Marcus Lee expertly to score 81 points at 60 per cent from the field, with 16 assists to 10 cough-ups against Tassie’s pressure, Shea Ili played the role of mastermind with eight dimes.

High ball-screen – Perth took away the Breakers’ roll game in Round 14 but Mody Maor adjusted beautifully to spread the floor with corner shooters and set Dererk Pardon loose on the short roll all night long for 28 points at 86 per cent. Seven of Brown and McDowell-White’s 11 assists went in the direction of their centre. Melbourne will defend that action differently with Lee protecting the paint but Pardon must go at him, because without Isaac Humphries in reserve foul trouble will leave United vulnerable on the interior.

What needs stopping?

Getting outworked – While New Zealand’s execution was outstanding they were uncharacteristically outworked against Perth. They were beaten 16-9 on points from turnovers and 23-15 on second chance points as the Wildcats grabbed 15 offensive rebounds at 38 per cent. For context the Breakers usually give up 9.8 per game at 28 per cent. While Pardon had a huge offensive impact, TaShawn Thomas and Brady Manek clunked a combined seven o-boards and converted them into 14 game-defining points.

Will McDowell-White – Although the Breakers didn't emerge from their clash with Perth with a victory, large amounts of post-game praise was saved for guard Will McDowell-White. Analysts Liam Santamaria and Corey Williams labelled him as the side's 'quarterback' on NBL Overtime and the Breakers look a different side when he's flowing offensively. A player who's most damaging when driving to the rim or finding open teammates United would do well to block McDowell-White's passing lanes and force him to shoot over the top of some tight defence.

Who’s missing key men?

Melbourne will be without frontcourt veterans Isaac Humphries and Dave Barlow in Christchurch, while New Zealand will be without Barry Brown Jr due to a groin complaint.

Who’s matching up?

Izayah Le’afa v Chris Goulding – Do you think CG43 likes playing the Breakers? He’s delivered 19.8ppg on a ridiculous 4.8 triples at 51 per cent in their past five meetings, including 24 points on 6/11 in Round 1 this season. His past four NBL23 outings have produced 21.8ppg on 4.8 treys at 42 per cent, and United are 2-8 when Goulding scores 15 or less. Le’afa’s job fighting through a mountain of screens could be game-defining if he can restirct United's spritual leader on the scoreboard.

Tom Abercrombie v Rayjon Tucker – If Chris Goulding is Melbourne United's Batman, it's hard to argue that Rayjon Tucker is his Robin. Tucker has become a quality open-court and half-court operator with 20ppg at 55 per cent inside and 40 per cent outside, along with 2.9 assists in Melbourne’s run of six wins from eight starts. Abercrombie has the length and defensive nous to contain his drives and contest his pull-ups, but can the veteran Breaker keep up with him in transition?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The icing on the Round 14 cake ???? <a href="https://twitter.com/th3flighttuck?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@th3flighttuck</a> <a href="https://t.co/PhmB6wpMOs">pic.twitter.com/PhmB6wpMOs</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1611643625942978561?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 7, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Beating Tasmania in Hobart is not an easy thing to do, and at half-time things were not looking good for Melbourne United.

Sure, they’d got hot and piled on 54 points, but in their past six second halves against the JackJumpers they’d managed just 33.3 points.

Furthermore, Tassie were dominating on the glass and Isaac Humphries and Dave Barlow were done for the game. That makes what happened next so impressive.

“In the possession game it was a pretty poor start from us,’ coach Dean Vickerman said.

“We might have given up seven o-boards in the first quarter and it was 11 at the half, so that was a big difference to not allow them an offensive rebound in the second half, a huge change for us and a big part of winning the game.”

Despite being without those key frontcourt pieces – Humphries with his rim protection and Barlow’s nous defending ball-screens and filling gaps off the ball – United held their hosts to 29 points in the next 15 minutes to set up a match-winning lead.

“I thought our defence was at a good level tonight,” Vickerman said.

“The biggest thing you’ve got to be pleased with is we lose David Barlow, we lose Isaac Humphries and Marcus Lee was massive for us, played most of the second half with (only) a couple of minutes out.

“Newley stepping in, he’s been playing the three-spot for the last six weeks and went back in and played the four-spot and did it really well.”

It was a statement win, genuinely announcing this Melbourne line-up with Shea Ili, Chris Goulding and Lee together can compete on the NBL’s toughest stages.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Captain ends the quarter in style ? <br><br>? ESPN via Kayo or Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/kf8VbbcJrc">pic.twitter.com/kf8VbbcJrc</a></p>&mdash; Melbourne United (@MelbUnited) <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbUnited/status/1611636204235280384?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 7, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They’ll have to do that again on Thursday with a big Christchurch crowd expected and the Breakers arguably the mentally toughest team in NBL23.

“They're playing great basketball,” Vickerman said.

“Going down to Christchurch, that’s a big venue, they pack a lot of people in there, really looking forward to getting back to New Zealand and playing them … they’ve been worthy of being a top two team all year and to win over there, we know how tough it’s going to be, similar to how tough it was tonight.”

There will be some key points they can take from the JackJumpers game too, notably their ability to get behind the physical pressure defence and exploit the lack of genuine size inside.

Melbourne scored 68 points from ‘ones and twos’, connected at 64 per cent in the paint and got to the charity stripe 31 times.

“We've been hunting really good three-point shots and that was the lowest number we've shot for a long time,” Vickerman said.

“We attacked their pressure and it allowed us to get to the foul line tonight, which was a big factor.”

Melbourne beat the JackJumpers by being better at the fundamentals, something New Zealand couldn’t get done in Perth.

“We gave 15 offensive rebounds, they scored 23 points, this is where we lost this ball game,” coach Mody Maor said.

“We pride ourselves on being a better defensive rebounding team than this, we started the season off rebounding poorly, we've improved a lot and this was a very bad game for us in this regard.”

The Breakers ultimately put too many eggs in the Bryce Cotton basket, holding the MVP candidate to 3/17 from the field but watching the rest of the Wildcats roster shoot at 55 per cent.

“Part of it was our schemes, we were switching a lot which puts you in a little bit of a size disadvantage,” Maor said.

“But that’s when you need to be physical and play with heart and five players need to get in there and grab it and we didn’t do that work today.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How good is it having this guy run your point!?? <a href="https://t.co/sLjcwqVJ27">pic.twitter.com/sLjcwqVJ27</a></p>&mdash; Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1612779483806986240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The positives for Maor and Co was their precision executing the high ball-screen, something that troubled Melbourne mightily in the season-opener.

That will have been a major focus of United’s planning this week, glad to have Shea Ili in the line-up this time.

“Defensively they challenged us with their on-ball screening,” Vickerman said.

“Their ability to roll on the rim, their ability to hit floaters in the paint. Probably the biggest work on for us is going back and seeing how much better can we be in the ball-screen against that team.

“If (NZ) are going to put a Le’afa and a Brown on the floor, and a Will (McDowell) White, multiple guys that use the on-ball really well, hopefully we can match up a little better.”

The Breakers don’t have time for planning, flying back from Perth and hopping on the court to take on the resurgent Melbourne.

While coach Maor used Tuesday’s press conference to campaign for more foul calls, he wasn’t interested in complaining about the revised schedule.

“This is the hand we’re dealt, this is the hand that we play, this is a group of people in this locker room and in this team that are privileged to be at the top of the table,” he said.

“We’re happy, finally, to be in January and playing games that are meaningful and we’re up to the task. We love the challenge, we love the competition and we’re looking forward to the next game.”