Preview: Illawarra v Sydney (Round 11)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Friday 16 December, 2022

Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong

Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Sydney 83 (Glover 13, Soares 12, Walton 12) d Illawarra 82 (Harvey 32, Froling 17) – Round 7, Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

There was no Peyton Siva, no Michael Frazier II and no hope for Illawarra heading into Round 7, and that seemed accurate when they trailed by 11 with 11 minutes to play. But 12 points in four minutes from Tyler Harvey changed the game, and back-to-back late floaters from T-Raw had the Hawks up two in the final 10 seconds with Tim Coenraad at the foul line. But Timmy missed and Shaun Bruce didn’t, his buzzer-beating triple putting Illawarra to sleep.

What happened last game?

Sydney’s late-game issues surfaced again last week as they let another match-winning lead slip, but this time is was Milton Doyle delivering the dagger instead of a King coming to the rescue, their reliance on Xavier Cooks once again evident. It was another case of heart-break for the Hawks as an early 16-point lead in Cairns evaporated, but they showed great fight to equalise late in regulation and the first overtime and then defend staunchly to force another five minutes, only to see Siva’s attempted game-winner go wide in double OT.

What’s working?

Michael Frazier II – Four games in and this guy is still hooping at a high level, averaging 19.8 points per game at 53 per cent from the field and 57 per cent from deep, 4.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists. While the numbers are good, what makes him so hard to guard is the composure he is playing with, his strength enabling him to play calmly through pressure and know when to penetrate, when to pull-up and when to fire off his impressive step-back three.

Xavier Cooks – Sydney were +4 with Cooks on the court against Tassie and -12 in the other 9:44, and across the season he is +105 with the nearest King being Tim Soares at +63. The X-man shot at 60 per cent against Tasmania, but the JJs were disciplined in taking away roll-out catches and making others beat them, the result being just 10 field-goal attempts and two free throws. Given Deng Deng can’t guard this man, Illawarra will need to follow suit.

What needs stopping?

Walk-it-up basketball – The Kings have been outscored 43-15 in their past two final quarters as both New Zealand and the JackJumpers played methodical half-court offence and limited Sydney’s ability to rebound-and-run or score off turnovers. With their half-court offence overly-dependent on Cooks and Derrick Walton, it’s crucial the Kings sprint in transition and generate some early scores in fourth quarters, after managing a total of just five points in the first half of possessions in the final 10 minutes against Tassie and NZ.

Long-range Hawks – Illawarra entered last round ninth in three-point accuracy (32%) but it was only a matter of time. Harvey was a 38 per cent long-range shooter across his first four years as a pro, Siva hit a 38 per cent clip across 258 games in Europe, Frazier II nailed a dazzling 43 per cent across his collegiate career at Florida, Deng Deng shot 43 per cent at the Blitz and we all know what Coenraad can do. In Cairns, they went 17/35 from deep to almost pinch a win, and hopefully for Hawks fans the seal is now officially broken.

Who’s matching up?

Peyton Siva v Derrick Walton – Siva has shot 40 per cent from deep the past three games, suggesting his touch is returning. Sydney can’t allow a repeat of his eight-assist, one-turnover performance in Cairns either, because that gets the other Hawks going. Walton has certainly got going in recent weeks, averaging 19.3 points per game at 54 per cent and six assists in his past three, if he can just cut down those 4.3 turnovers per night the Kings offence will hum.

Tyler Harvey v Justin Simon – The battle of former teammates went to Harvey last time, Simon getting lost away from the ball as T-Raw produced 32 points at 57 per cent from the field, including a perfect 5/5 on floaters in the second half. Does Simon get an opportunity to redeem himself, or does the form of Michael Frazier II make that his match-up? If so, does DJ Vasiljevic or Walton start on Harvey, and does Angus Glover get extra minutes for this job? Whichever way, Sydney must contest without giving up open threes to others.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="fr" dir="ltr">Efficient. Efficient. EFFICIENT.?<br><br>? ESPN via Kayo Sports + Foxtel!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/SoeLQlMjBA">pic.twitter.com/SoeLQlMjBA</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1601476061870821376?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Kings coach Chase Buford’s summation of the thrilling Round 7 Freeway Series clash was a simple one.

“I went up to Jacob and every member of their staff and playing group and said ‘You guys deserved to win this game’,” Buford said.

“They outplayed us, they outcompeted us, especially in that second half and fourth quarter. They played with more of an edge, they played with more of a physicality, more of an aggressive mindset.”

With Xavier Cooks watching from the sidelines, the Kings became proactive against Illawarra’s aggressive defence.

“We had moments tonight where the ball moved and it was ok, but there was so much where the ball stuck and we didn’t have much pace,” Buford said.

“Their pressure, when we finally started trying to beat it we had some good looks, but it really slowed us down in that second and third quarter.”

That game was an early warning sign of two trends that are threatening to impact Sydney’s title defence, the first being their inability to generate pace against teams committed to half-court basketball, the other being their lethargy at Qudos Bank Arena.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“Can Bruce be the man this time?” Spoiler alert, he can ?<br> <br>Shaun Bruce locked into his Clutch Shooter badge against the Hawks and stole the game for the Sydney Kings ?<br> <br>NBA 2K23 is available now via <a href="https://t.co/sk7354hnla">https://t.co/sk7354hnla</a> <a href="https://t.co/Y2h0MW1wcK">pic.twitter.com/Y2h0MW1wcK</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1599546592238993412?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“I hope we don’t have to keep having this wake-up call at home, it’s too many times now where we've been on the back foot and let somebody come into our house and be the aggressor,” Buford said.

“We should be the aggressor, we should come in and play with a mentality and a presence where we intimidate other people in our house.”

That reared its ugly head last week against Tasmania as a full-strength Kings outfit capitulated in the final term, and Buford wasn’t being so diplomatic about his teams late-game struggles this time around.

“We limited ourselves with some of the obnoxiously dumb turnovers we had,” he said.

"We just suck in the fourth quarter - we're soft.”

Though it sounds strange, the good news for Kings fans is they’re playing on the road this week, their team 6-1 away from home with the only loss in overtime.

Perhaps the only more consistent pattern than Sydney sizzling on the road is Illawarra playing poorly every second game.

Last week they did everything but win in Cairns, two games prior toppled Melbourne in style, skip back another two and they fall by a point in Sydney, then two games before that fell to United in double-overtime.

In between they’ve gone 0-3 with an average losing margin of 29.7 points, so it’s no surprise what Sam Froling and Co are focusing on after playing some well in the Far North.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How did he get that off???<br><br>Tyler Harvey making BIG shots in 2OT.<br><br>Catch the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/k4Nsi8fVnX">pic.twitter.com/k4Nsi8fVnX</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1601497599831203840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 10, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We’re moving forward as a group and the next challenge for us is backing this up with another good game,” Froling said.

“Generally we've played well then tended to struggle in the next one then play well, so for us the next big step is consistently play good games and as we do that I'm sure we’ll see the wins stack up a bit more.”

Some pundits may have expected the adversity the Hawks have faced this year – from close losses to injuries and multiple import replacements – to see a capitulation as the season progressed, but that hasn’t happened so far.

“We’re just trying to keep the room professional and positive and doing the right thing,” coach Jacob Jackomas said in Cairns.

“I guess it’s the people that we have around us, it starts with Sam and Tyler as our leaders, the two Americans who have come in and we have people in the room who know right from wrong and understand that was wrong the other day and they're trying to make it right.

“Our day-to-day hasn’t ever been jaded, we haven't had a bad day on the (practice court).”

Jackomas is loving the way his group has responded and stayed true to representing the Illawarra the right way, even if that means receiving some brutally honest feedback at times.

“This is all them, they’ve got a good mindset, and they're allowing me to be a coach that can coach them hard and not worry about egos or feelings in the room,” he said.

“We do have it in us, it’s just now putting it together on a consistent basis game after game and then eventually those little mistakes won’t be second nature.”