Preview: Illawarra v Perth (Round 13)

When: 5.30pm (AEDT), Saturday 31 December 2022
Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Perth 77 (Norton 14, Travers 14, Cotton 13) d Illawarra 71 (King 25, Froling 14, Dent 11) – Round 2 at RAC Arena

George was the King of the Jungle in Round 2, coming off the bench to drill 5/8 from deep en route to 25 points, in a dour game where all other players combined hit 11/48 from the arc. King’s outburst helped the Hawks to double-figure leads in the second and third terms as they shut down Bryce Cotton at the other end. The 'Cats still trailed by five with three minutes to play, but late triples to Cotton, Corey Webster and Luke Travers turned the tide, while Perth’s 25-7 advantage in free-throw attempts was also decisive.

What happened last game?

The 'Cats were at it again in Brisbane, shooting 40 charity shots to 21, the only problem being they missed 18, including 14 in regulation in a game that should have never needed OT. The Hawks needed Tyler Harvey and Michael Frazier against Tasmania, and while their remaining crew produced 42 points in the opening 24 minutes to be within six, without their two leading scorers they managed just 18 in the final 16 as the JJs blew them away.

What’s working?

Not fouling – Perth commit 14.9 fouls per game and gift opponents only 15.6 free throws, both league lows. While much has been made of the Wildcats’ rebounding deficit, their +85 free-throw differential helps them set up their pressure D, resulting in forcing 60 more turnovers than their opponents so far and being +43 in the possession game. The yin to that yang is they concede an NBL-high 47 per cent from the field, including a ninth-ranked 23.1 two-pointers at 57 per cent, and they must avoid fouls without giving up soft baskets.

Sam Froling – The Hawks’ burgeoning co-captain is sure to take advantage if the Wildcats allow him easy catches inside or offensive rebounding lanes, Froling averaging 18ppg at 50 per cent inside, 6.8rpg, 3.5 o-boards and 1.3 assists in the past four games. Sam had 14 points from nine shots last time the teams met, with all of his baskets coming at the cup, and his battle with TaShawn Thomas will be an intriguing clash of two centres with high-level composure, deft touch and the ability to find open teammates.

What needs stopping?

Michael Frazier II – Some Perth fans will say Frazier teased them with his 50-point, 10-triple performance in their final three games of NBL22, and if that’s the case he’s continuing the torment with 19.0ppg at 42 per cent from deep in his opening six as a Hawk. In his past two, 29 of his 35 points have come from ‘ones and twos’, including 7/11 at the cup and 9/9 from the foul line, so Luke Travers, Thomas and Co will need to be ready to contest.

Feeding the 'Cats – Perth rank second for opposition turnovers (14.0) and in their nine wins they are +73 on scores from cough-ups. In Round 2, the Hawks burped it up 18 times and were thrashed 31-6 on points from turnovers in a six-point loss. Illawarra had 20 miscues against Tassie last round, and in their five wins, overtime games and on-the-buzzer losses the Hawks are +11 in that stat, compared to -94 in their other 12 outings.

Who’s matching up?

Tyler Harvey v Bryce Cotton – In a global era where most imports change countries each season, Harvey and Cotton have stuck by their respective clubs. Since Round 4, Bryce has averaged 3.6 triples at 39 per cent, and the Hawks must run him off the arc. The same can be said for T-Raw, who has dropped 3.2 treys at 41 per cent since Peyton Siva’s first full game, while his floater game has deserted him with just 41 per cent two-point conversion.

Deng Deng v Brady Manek – After a run of smooth, conscience-free shooting that delivered 21/36 three-point shooting across five games, Brady has reverted to manic shooting, his rushed releases resulting in a three-of-16 return the past four outings. It’s crucial he delivers on open looks on NYE, with Deng the Hawks’ number one defensive rebounder, averaging 6.8 the past four games. If Manek can stretch him to the perimeter the o-boards will open up, but if he falls asleep on Deng at the other end he’ll end up on a poster.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hugeee dunk by Deng Deng! ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a><br><br> <a href="https://t.co/8I4oSj8ugx">pic.twitter.com/8I4oSj8ugx</a></p>&mdash; NBL News (@NBL_News) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL_News/status/1604353906812649472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Since Round 3, the Perth Wildcats have either sat in fifth, sixth or seventh place on the NBL ladder, and they're currently sixth in what can only be described as a middling season so far.

Against the five teams above them they are 6-2, compared to 3-6 when facing the current bottom four.

It’s a superficial assessment, given Perth have only played one game against Sydney and New Zealand, but coach John Rillie doesn’t like it.

“We’ve got to get out of the rut of playing to a level of a team on the ladder,” he said.

“If you look at our record overall, we rise to the occasion against the teams that are above us, and we make ball games out of these teams that are below us on the ladder.

“That’s something we certainly need to address and come out with a more dogged mentality to that.”

While he didn’t mean it, Rillie sent a serious insult to the likes of the Brisbane Bullets, Melbourne United and Illawarra Hawks, who certainly wouldn’t see themselves as inferior opposition in what’s a very even NBL23, with just four games separating second from eighth almost two-thirds of the way through the season.

Perhaps the bigger concern for Perth to focus on is their 4-7 record in the first game of the round.

While going 5-1 when backing up shows outstanding resilience and ability to adjust on the fly, such a poor first-up record hints at issues with their preparation and scouting, especially given they’ve leaked 91.6ppg in regulation in their past nine opening games of the round.

On Tuesday in Brisbane they weren’t ready for the Bullets’ switching defence.

“Our offence wasn’t flowing like it has been,” Rillie said post-game.

“The second and third quarter we couldn’t get into a good flow and rhythm of the game, we did a good job of sticking around, making it ugly, but we just couldn’t create any real momentum until the fourth quarter when we changed up our defence a little bit.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BIG BUCKET BRYCE! ?<br><br>? Watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/SWdMYUkOQ5">pic.twitter.com/SWdMYUkOQ5</a></p>&mdash; Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerthWildcats/status/1607682617561780225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Defensively, they still haven't fixed up their interior issues, with perimeter men Nathan Sobey, Tanner Krebs, Andrew White and Tyler Johnson shooting a combined 15/22 from two-point range, including 12/15 at the rim.

“Their perimeter players are pretty aggressive attacking us,” Rillie said.

You can bet Michael Frazier will be intent on exposing the same weakness against his former team.

“Any player that plays against their former club, especially one that doesn’t go to plan, they are out to prove a point,” Rillie told The West Australian.

“If you got fired from your job and someone picked you up, you’re going to try and make a point. It’s just the way that it goes.

“He’s come out here and he’s played very well. He’s brought a great dimension to their team.”

With the Hawks playing at home on New Year’s Eve, Rillie knows this game is going to be a dogfight, and is imploring his team to fix the issues that have dogged them for much of the season.

“Our offence is not always going to be picture perfect and we’re going to have another game where it seems like it’s a bit of struggle or the flow of the game isn’t up to the way we like to play, so our defence really needs to be locked in,” he said.

“When we’re not executing it it’s costing us dearly, they’re the things that come back to bite you.

“We can talk about free throws, but I look at the amount of points we give up on things we have been working on since day one.”

The Hawks have epitomised the saying ‘one step forward, two steps backwards’ this season, with the injury bug ruining any chance of continuity.

However they are expected to have a full squad to welcome in 2023 – Frazier and Harvey – back in the fold after missing the loss to SEM, and will take confidence from their recent form leading up to that.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">On the first day of christmas, my true love gave to me ball movement 101?<br><br>? 10 Peach &amp; 10play | Live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/5PIUAFFN41">pic.twitter.com/5PIUAFFN41</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1605848947339120640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We thought we started to get some momentum in the last four games and obviously this has been another little bit of a hurdle for us, but we've bounced back all year,” coach Jacob Jackomas said.

A key to exposing Perth’s interior defence will be Sam Froling, who has been producing quality numbers of late.

He’s still learning the trade though, and the Hawks need him to take a valuable lesson from SE Melbourne’s changing defence.

While Froling has been able to expose hard shows, he hasn’t consistently shown the patience to adjust his short-roll positioning when teams take away his catch-and-finish at the hoop.

“They changed that on-ball D, they started to drop it,” he said after the Phoenix game.

“I got a lot on the rim in the first half, which is probably why I scored a bit more, the big one for me is looking after the ball in the second half, there were a few times I turned it over, a few too many.”