Preview: Cairns v Tasmania (Seeding Qualifier)

When: 8.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 9 February, 2023
Where: Cairns Convention Centre
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE STATS AND BOX SCORE

Who won last time?

Tasmania 85 (McVeigh 18, Kenyon 15, Magette 14) d Cairns 77 (Hogg 17, Kuol 17, Waardenburg 13) – Round 16 at Cairns Convention Centre

Last time the JackJumpers headed to Cairns it was a gruelling but gripping affair. The rulebook was cast aside as both teams climbed up-and-in, resulting in a litany of turnovers and a game far-removed from James Naismith’s intentions. In the end, it came down to who could make big plays through the physicality and the answer was Tasmania. Jack McVeigh and Milton Doyle nailed a trifecta of triples to spark an 11-0 run in the final four minutes.

What happened last game?

There was far less stress for the JackJumpers as they cruised past the last-placed Hawks in Round 18 to lock up fourth place for the second time in their two-year existence. Coach Scott Roth would have been delighted with a performance that kept Illawarra to 63 points at 37 per cent and created a 17-3 points from turnovers advantage.

The Taipans put on their own defensive clinic in Perth despite playing without on-court leader Tahjere McCall and star centre Keanu Pinder. Adam Forde’s men kept the Wildcats – who had averaged 102.8ppg in their previous five outings – to just 71 points at 35 per cent while grabbing a whopping 81 per cent of available defensive boards.

What’s working?

Motion to Milton – McCall and company have largely subdued Milton Doyle in their NBL23 meetings – he's averaged just 13.3ppg at 34 per cent in the season series – due to their ability to effectively switch ball-screens. But in Round 16 the JackJumpers found some anti-venom, getting into on-ball action 11 times following ball reversals for 24 points, with Cairns’ weakside tall defender often caught deep in help position.

They also executed three double high-screens with Sam Waardenburg guarding the second screener in deep drops for six points. In those 14 possessions Doyle was the primary ball-handler 10 times and Tasmania scored 30 points at 79 per cent from the field and 7/9 from range. Over their other 66 possessions they scored just 55 points at 38 per cent.

Quick shots – In the last meeting in Cairns, the JackJumpers were in an early world of defensive hurt as McCall, Shannon Scott and DJ Hogg created transition lay-ups and Bul Kuol landed an open-court triple. Over the course of the game the Taipans scored 52 points in the first half of the shot clock at a blistering 55 per cent. When they were forced into slow, half-court basketball, they managed just 19 points at 35 per cent against the set JackJumpers’ defence.

What needs to be stopped?

Snake attacks – The quick-shot approach is because, like Sydney, the Taipans believe Tasmania are vulnerable if their athletes can break the first line of pressure defence. Across the season series, Cairns have shot 30 more free throws and are +26 on scores from the stripe, albeit only +3 in their Round 16 loss.

They also have a +30 points in the paint advantage, and it’s no surprise the Snakes have averaged just 21.7 triple attempts against Tassie, compared to 32.1 against the rest of the league. In the final five minutes in Round 16, however, Cairns went 0/5 in the paint as the JackJumpers' pressure forced them into one-out drives.

Bombing raids – When these teams do shoot from deep against each other it usually goes in. They're averaging 21.3 made triples at 43 per cent, with the winning team converting at 47 per cent. In Round 1 the Taipans hit six transition triples in 14 minutes to fuel a match-winning 52-28 run. In Round 16, Tasmania dropped seven triples at 78 per cent from patient second-sided offence into ball-screens. Who will get their preferred rhythm shots this time?

Who’s missing key men?

Keanu Pinder will again be absent for Cairns, while the JackJumpers will be without Josh Magette and await a game-day fitness test for Clint Steindl (hip).

Who’s matching up?

DJ Hogg v Jack McVeigh – Hogg hasn’t had his biggest nights against the JackJumpers – averaging 15ppg at 49 per cent – but his past six games have produced 20.3ppg at 63 per cent inside the arc and 37 per cent outside, as he’s become the key focal point in the absence of Pinder.

It’s fair to say McVeigh enjoys playing Cairns. He averages 17.5ppg at 57 per cent inside and 6/9 outside in the past two meetings. Defensively, the Taipans’ frontcourt presents its challenges though. Tassie is -25 in this season series with McVeigh on the floor and +2 with him resting.

Sam Waardenburg v Will Magnay – The JackJumpers are +3 in this season series with Magnay on the floor. They gave up 106 points at 62 per cent inside with him missing in Round 1, then reduced that to 91 and 55 per cent in the second clash as the former Most Improved Player swatted three shots.

In Round 16 that plummeted down to 77 points at 50 per cent inside as Magnay played a season-high 28 minutes and made big plays around the rim at both ends. Waardenburg has taken just eight three-point attempts in his past six games, can he get hot from outside to draw Will out?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Will Magnay letting &#39;em know early. <br><br>Tune in on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/ZwfJnpHCFQ">pic.twitter.com/ZwfJnpHCFQ</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1621763198373478406?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 4, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Not many teams beat the Tasmania JackJumpers without really working for it, and you sensed that’s what Adam Forde loved most about the Taipans’ Round 11 win in Hobart.

“These guys here are really driven and it’s hard to try and get a game model on the defensive end if the guys don’t want to do the dirty work,” he said post-game.

“You see at any given point, regardless of who we sub out there, we've got guys who are all about the dirty work.

“There was that possession in front of the bench in the fourth quarter, everyone was diving on the ball, and if they weren’t diving on the ball they were ready to get a hand in and create a deflection.

“That’s tough. Not everyone wants to do that and to really get that from your import players coming in, putting their body on the line for possession, it’s massive and it leads by example.”

That made it two-straight road Ws over the Tasmanians, where the Snakes’ aggression had got to the underbelly of the JackJumpers’ often-vaunted defence.

Rather than bombing from the arc, which has been their ‘MO’ for much of the season, Cairns took a season-low number from outside while scoring 50 points in the paint and outscoring their hosts 70-49 on ‘ones and twos’.

“We recognised we could get to the foul line if we stayed aggressive,” Forde said.

“(Shooting) 7/14 (from three), I didn’t realise that until you highlighted it, it was purely based on a match-up where we knew we could get out in the open court in transition and put heat on the rim, attack the paint.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Deng defying gravity ??<br><br>Watch LIVE on ESPN ? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> <a href="https://t.co/huxRuvTSX6">pic.twitter.com/huxRuvTSX6</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1604008186037800960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Fast forward to Round 16 in the Far North and Scott Roth’s men were in no mood to be swept, getting after the Taipans with physicality and never letting it become an up-and-down affair.

“In the first half we played to Tasmania’s game plan and they did a hell of a job with it, I don’t want to say the word wrestle, but they slowed us down,” Forde said.

“We had a couple of little runs, but even then we’d get a little bit of a run on and Tassie did something to counter it, whether it be defensively or at the offensive end, and it just seemed to be well-timed momentum shifts back in their favour, that’s one we’re going to need to work on.

“Tassie were doing a really good job of plugging up the middle, they were up on the ball, we couldn’t really shift it from one side to the other as much as we’d like.”

The result was just 77 Cairns’ points and 18 turnovers – after averaged 98.5ppg and 10 miscues in the first two meetings –  and you can bet the Taipans are trying to find ways to break the grind this time around.

“They're going to try and slow us down and for stretches it’s effective, and then we have those moments where we open up the floodgates and run with it,” Forde said.

“We had 13 turnovers in the first half from very uncharacteristic possessions. We were trying to force the ball where there was no angle to pass it.

“Tassie did a hell of a job playing the way they wanted to but we also laid an egg in the first half and did not play well.”

While it’s a big ask to produce that sort of defensive performance twice in front of the deafening noise of affirmation at the Snakepit, if any team can it’s the methodical JackJumpers, whose physicality has become an accepted part of their defence.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Robbery and delivery of stolen goods ? Doyle ? Kenyon <br><br>Watch live on ESPN via kayo &amp; foxtel <a href="https://t.co/SJm5h5oU09">pic.twitter.com/SJm5h5oU09</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1616367851975368704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“I've said all along our motto is our defence travels, and if you bring it with you everywhere you go you at least have a chance in these types of games to win,” coach Roth said.

“You’re not going to just go into buildings and outscore people, we’re not built that way, some teams are, we’re built to play defence and keep the ball in front of us as best we can.

“I thought our workload was consistent across the board. We've been battling the inconsistency of quarters, and I thought for the most part we were consistent through this entire game.”

Of course, the biggest question is about Tasmania’s offence with Josh Magette sidelined, the first time in club history the JJs will play without their high-IQ floor general.

While it will place a huge burden on Jarrad Weeks, Isaac White, Sean Macdonald and Milton Doyle, centre Will Magnay knows first-hand his team’s ability to cover for injured mates.

“It’s all about that ‘next man up’ mentality with Jet going down,” Magnay said.

“There’s opportunities for everyone to step up as he does a lot for us and runs the offence and he’s going to be a big loss.

“But we’ve done it all year and been short all year with players out so we’ve got to do it again … everyone has to shoulder more of the load, like the boys did for me last year when I was out and they got to the Grand Final.

“So hopefully I can shoulder a bit more of a load this year and help us get there again.”