Preview: Cairns v Brisbane (Round 11)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Wednesday 14 December, 2022

Where: Cairns Convention Centre

Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Cairns 90 (Pinder 25, Hogg 20, Waardenburg 14) d Brisbane 82 (Mitchell 21, Johnson 17, Cadee 11) – Round 7 at Nissan Arena, Brisbane

When the Taipans led by 10 points in the fourth back in Round 7 they looked in control, but nobody told Tyler Johnson and DJ Mitchell, who combined for 20 points in the final 8:30 to give the Bullets a sniff. However, a Mitchell triple to give Brisbane the lead late rimmed out and Cairns capitalised, Keanu Pinder and DJ Hogg scoring 10 points in two minutes to shut the door on a see-sawing game in front of a packed and boisterous Armoury crowd.

What happened last game?

The Taipans had only won three of their past seven when they welcomed the Hawks to town and quickly found themselves 16 points down, but Tahjere McCall turned the tide, DJ Hogg piled on the points and some cooking in Cairns helped the Snakes home in double OT. The Bullets also started slow in Melbourne, and while Nathan Sobey and Co challenged a number of times, they couldn’t pinch the lead and eventually slipped to a 16-point defeat.

What’s working?

Not instability – The Bullets' against Cairns was in the midst of three wins from four, following an 0-5 start. Then James Duncan was released and it was ground zero with a humiliation in New Zealand. The Bullets then knocked off Perth and had chances against Tasmania and United, before Sam Mackinnon was moved back to GM. With all this playing out as the team prepared to head north, who knows what Greg Vanderjagt’s first game will deliver.  

Not inconsistent disruption – Cairns’ scores are like a roller-coaster at the moment: 90, 71, 94, 75, 102. Funnily enough, that links in with the level of disruption they bring at the defensive end. In wins this season they average 10.3 steals compared to 7.4 in defeat. If you take out their loss in Sydney, where the Snakes had 10 thefts and generated 103 points, that leaves four losses with averages of 71.5ppg and 6.3 steals. Last time against Brisbane they had 10 steals and were +13 on points from turnovers in an eight-point win.

What needs stopping?

Opponents – The Bullets have some good offensive talent, but they’re hardly at the NBL’s pinnacle in that regard, so to win they’ve got to play some D. In the four games since Duncan’s departure, Brisbane have leaked an astonishing 103.5ppg at 51 per cent, including 13 triples per night at 42 per cent. When you factor in they're also -28 on points in the paint, it’s reflective of an undermanned team struggling for an identity in the midst of change.

Frontcourt rim raids – You’d think with Aron Baynes and Tyrell Harrison on duty in Round 7, the Cairns frontcourt would have to score away from the hoop. Uh uh. Pinder, Hogg, Majok Deng and Sam Waardenburg combined for 71 points at 68 per cent on twos, with 58 of those coming from within three feet. Not surprisingly, 34 of their points were in the first 12 seconds of Snakes’ possessions, so the Brissy bigs need to be ready in transition.

Who’s matching up?

Keanu Pinder v Aron Baynes – The Taipans won points in the paint 42-28 in that Round 7 meeting and were only forced into six two-point attempts from outside lay-up or floater range. Given Cairns shoot at the NBL’s second-worst clip from distance – 26 per cent in their past four games – the Bullets must be prepared to give up some pull-ups to lesser shooters so Baynes can plonk himself in the paint and meet the rolling Pinder at the rim.

Bul Kuol v Nathan Sobey – The efficiency hasn’t been super for Sobes the past three games, but he’s giving himself every chance to deliver Brisbane victory with 24ppg on a perfect 16/16 from the foul line. Kuol was able to put hands all over Peyton Siva last week to disrupt the Hawks’ offence, but Sobey has conniptions on contact with the best of them, so Kuol and Co may have to adjust their physical approach to keep him off the stripe.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NATHAN SOBEY DROPPED A BASELINE HAMMER ?<br><br>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel ? <a href="https://t.co/iMHTh2kgv9">pic.twitter.com/iMHTh2kgv9</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1598243703633559552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

Rewind 17 days and the Brisbane Bullets have just found out there had been a coaching change in the final stages of preparation to play the New Zealand Breakers.

With almost half their roster sidelined at the same time, it resulted in one of the club’s worst performances as they were wiped off the floor.

The next week they bounced back with a character-filled overtime win over storied rivals the Perth Wildcats, and point guard Jason Cadee gave a great insight into a week of chaos and regrouping.

“We voiced it and spoke about it a little bit, how is everyone feeling,” he said.

“Some people haven't been in this situation before, so when you fly over and all of a sudden Sammy’s standing on sidelines and the whole moment can feel like a blur.

“As a group we felt disappointed for everyone. For the way we played, for (Sam) in his first game coaching, and it’s about finding a way to make up for it, the little things you can do.”

Now, remarkably, less than two weeks after downing the 'Cats, Cadee and Co are in the same situation as they fly to Cairns and welcome new import forward Andrew White.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Andrew White scored 15 points in 17 minutes in his NBA debut. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TrueToAtlanta?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TrueToAtlanta</a> <a href="https://t.co/PAfN9vTJNW">pic.twitter.com/PAfN9vTJNW</a></p>&mdash; Bally Sports: Hawks (@HawksOnBally) <a href="https://twitter.com/HawksOnBally/status/963969093568151552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 15, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Will they be able to learn the lesson from their first coaching change, come together, put aside the emotion and uncertainty and focus on executing between the white lines?

It’s a huge challenge and, listening to Nathan Sobey, it had been the steady influence of assistant coach turned GM turned head coach Sam Mackinnon that had helped them regroup quickly last time.

“Sammy’s done a great job bringing the boys together and obviously we've got a tight-knit group, it’s just about continually getting reps at what we’re doing now and believing in the direction we’re heading,” he said after last week’s game in Melbourne.

“Now he’s back as the head coach I'm really enjoying it and I think the group is really enjoying it too, just continuing to work together, believing in the process and the rest will take care of itself.”

While Mackinnon is still at the club, the disruption of ownership decisions is unquestionable and the degree to which it will impact on Wednesday night is unknown.

What the Bullets do know is they can’t repeat the first-half clumsiness that cost them dearly in Melbourne, and was the deciding factor last time against Cairns.

“We turned the ball over a lot,” Mackinnon said post game.

“We’d be averaging 11-12 turnovers and we had 10 in the first half and with that we were playing catch up.”

They also can’t go -16 on points in the paint again, mirroring the -14 from the Round 7 loss to the Snakes.

“That 50 points in the paint, that’s our guard play too with our bigs, working together. We weren’t great in that space today, too many easy baskets,” Mackinnon said.

They particularly can’t give up an abundance of early scores around the rim as they did in the last Sunshine Stoush, including at key moments down the stretch.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pinder with the TOUGH finish and the foul! ?<br><br>KP is leading all scorers with 19 points! ? <a href="https://t.co/nsdxldMxBP">pic.twitter.com/nsdxldMxBP</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1593919515716296705?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 19, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“They're a tough group to scout, they're just up-and-down, they have a few little actions but super athletes, Fordey has them eating out of his palm, it will be a tough one,” Mackinnon said.

What Cairns must anticipate is a fired-up team who are looking to take out their off-court frustrations on the floor, and ease some tension with a much-needed win.

That’s a task they failed last week against the hungry Hawks.

“We allowed them to get their eye in from the start with some average defence,” coach Adam Forde said.

“The big takeaway for us is we were down 16, a lot of that’s our own doing, it’s a work in progress.”

Yet while there was disappointment about not matching Illawarra’s intensity early, coach Forde loved his group’s mentality to stay calm and the reverse their result from the previous week in Adelaide.

“We have the most inexperienced team in franchise history. If you plot where we want to be during the season, this is exactly where we want to be, we've had success and we've had games like last weekend where we were up 19 and we lost,” Forde said.

“The message at half-time was trust what we've been building, know that we've been in this situation before, we've been down double-digits before.

“I'm not going to scream and yell, I'm not going to sit here and plead for you guys to shoot better or get to the rim, or stop turning it over, it’s just all those hours of reps we've put in, trust it and go out there and play, and play for each other.”