Preview: Sydney v Tasmania (Round 10)

When: 4pm (AEDT), Sunday 11 December, 2022

Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney

Broadcast: 10 Peach; 10 Play; ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ

Who won last time?

Sydney 97 (Cooks 23, Clark 22, Martin 22) d Tasmania 88 (Adams 27, McIntosh 14, Magette 12) – Grand Final Game 3 at NBL22, Qudos Bank Arena

Despite missing two starters and having another severely limited, Tasmania made Game 3 of the NBL22 grand final a contest to remember. With six JackJumpers nailing multiple trifectas – led by Josh Adams’ unstoppable 27-point performance – the undermanned underdogs still led by five with eight minutes to play. But Sydney, minus Jaylen Adams themselves, unleashed a 20-7 run over the next four minutes, Ian Clark and Jarell Martin combining for 15 to close the door and seal the championship deal, with Xavier Cooks claiming the Larry Sengstock Medal.

What happened last game?

It wasn’t quite the same barnstorming ending for the Kings in Auckland, literally held to just nine points in the final quarter but standing up strong at the defensive end to beat New Zealand on the road for the second time this season. Tasmania finished off a quality game in Brisbane with a spectacular 21-4 run in the final five minutes, sparked by their ability to bump and grind without drawing whistles and the sublime offensive brilliance of Milton Doyle.

What’s working?

Getting physical – Brisbane scored 30 points in the paint in the first half as the sliced and diced the JJs, but after interval Scott Roth’s men invaded their cylinder in an attempt to limit penetration and it worked, conceding just 11 paint points. A similar approach was successful for New Zealand against the Kings, and while the recent crackdown on contact has produced some highly-entertaining basketball, it’s always worth checking whether the offensive player’s cylinder will still be protected later in the game, because often the answer is no.

Cleaning the d-glass – Sydney ranked second in defensive rebounding percentage last season at 75 per cent, and fill the same spot in NBL23 again at 75 per cent, but they took that to a new level in Thursday’s top-of-the-table clash, keeping the Breakers to six o-boards as Xavier Cooks and Co hovered 84 per cent of available boards. In last year’s grand final, despite Tassie spreading the Sydney D to the perimeter, the Kings caromed 73 per cent.

What needs stopping?

Settling from outside – That floor-spreading was an attempt to disperse Sydney’s paint-packing defence and lesson their ability to rebound and run. Ultimately though, in their final four meetings with the Kings, Tasmania averaged 39 three-point heaves – 53 per cent of their attempts – but made a mediocre 34 per cent to spark Sydney’s transition. With Doyle, Will Magnay and Rashard Kelly now on board, Scott Roth will be hoping for a better balance.

Derrick Walton – The absence of Matt Kenyon and Sam McDaniel can’t be underestimated for any JackJumpers game, but when Walton is on the menu they will be sorely missed. Rayjon Tucker, Chris Goulding and Xavier Rathan-Mayes combined for 64 points on Tassie with that duo missing, while Nathan Sobey and Tyler Johnson had 37 between them at 67 per cent inside. Who will step up to make sure Derrick isn’t a match-winner?

Who’s matching up?

Xavier Cooks v Jack McVeigh – How do you solve a problem like Xavier? Tasmania certainly haven't. In their past four meetings, X has marked the spot with 17.8 ppg at 64 per cent, 11rpg, 6.3 assists, 3 o-boards and 1.5 blocks to be the dominant force. McVeigh played in three of those and averaged 11.3ppg at 36 per cent and 5.3rpg, so look for Tassie to get him some early pick-and-pop looks, and for Kelly to go hard at Cooks when he checks in.

Justin Simon v Milton Doyle – Josh Adams showed late last season he could be a deadly go-to man, and Doyle is making that clear early on in NBL23. His 33 points against Brisbane came at 63 per cent with four from the foul line, six from midrange, eight around the rim and 15 beyond the arc. Of course, Simon is fresh off helping keep Barry Brown to a 15-point, five-turnover night while adding 14 points himself, and will be more than up for this challenge.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Working on the weekend, Milton Doyle style ?<br><br>33 Points<br>9 Rebounds<br>3 Assists <a href="https://t.co/pK82dMiTVj">pic.twitter.com/pK82dMiTVj</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1599537435083669506?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

In the NBA, the offensive player’s cylinder and freedom of movement is taken for granted, just as it is in the Euroleague.

But in a country like Australia, where the rugby codes and Australian football are ingrained in the culture, it’s not surprising things are done a little bit more physically.

So you can imagine the adjustment for Kings boss Chase Buford when he first started coaching against the ‘up-and-in’ style early in NBL22, when a huge amount of contact was being allowed.

It took until just over half-way through last season for the freedom of movement aspects to be tightly officiated, and Buford’s Kings only lost two games thereafter as their penetration became almost impossible to stop.

So after another ultra-physical start to NBL23, you can imagine the Kings’ delight when freedom of movement started being more closely enforced just six weeks in.

That’s why he was so adamant in his statement about how the Sydney-New Zealand game was played on Thursday.

“We handled the pressure for a lot of the night, it felt like we were playing the All Blacks out there (with) the physicality,” he said.

“Freedom of movement totally went out the window tonight, every play they're grabbing and holding.

“Every single time on a screen, on a cut, we couldn’t move because they were holding us ... I thought it was really good how our team through the majority of the game had this presence, had this energy about them to say bring it, we’ll handle it.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Walking ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/DerrickWalton10?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DerrickWalton10</a> <a href="https://t.co/sYu3cg1Z4Z">pic.twitter.com/sYu3cg1Z4Z</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1600770742253240320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

His comments may have had one eye on this Sunday’s clash with Tasmania, who have been expert at breaching opposition cylinders as a disciplined unit.

In Round 10 last season before the crackdown, they held Sydney to 70 points and seven assists in a physical battle at MyState Bank Arena. In their four subsequent clashes later in the year, Sydney averaged 96.3ppg and 22 dimes.

So will this game at Qudos Bank Arena resemble Thursday’s rumble at Spark? Or will it align more with the open style of recent weeks?

That’s the puzzle Derrick Walton will have to figure out on the run in his first meeting with the JackJumpers, but he’s loving the challenge of overcoming the varying defensive schemes he’s seeing throughout the NBL.

“I always have a real silent confidence about myself, it’s just been trying to adjust to being guarded a bit different, each game it looks a little different,” he said.

“(It’s) trying to do what the game needs and still being aggressive, finding my niche between facilitating and scoring … trying to be consistent with my approach and not let outside factors get into my game.”

He’s not the only player who will take the court this Sunday after missing the NBL22 grand final series, with Will Magnay shaping as a key inclusion for Tassie.

In that three-game series, the Kings were +70 on points in the paint, shooting 61 per cent inside as the JackJumpers blocked just five shots in total for the series.

That doesn’t happen with Magnay on board, and after producing 10 points and five rebounds in less than 15 minutes against Brisbane, he’s starting to feel like his old self again upon return from injury.

“It was the first game I said leave me out here, I feel good. They didn’t, but that’s fine, I'm just here to play my role,” he said.

“The rhythm’s slowly coming back and just getting used to playing with Milt who’s a very, very good player, very dynamic passer and can put me in positions to be successful.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Safe to say, it was worth the wait ? MD?WM? <a href="https://t.co/zYDfhxHfTQ">pic.twitter.com/zYDfhxHfTQ</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1599295523483443201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Milt, of course, is import Milton Doyle, another new face from last year’s decider who is starting show he is the upgrade the JackJumpers were looking for on the wing.

“He fits the 'MO' of this group and we did a lot of homework on him,” coach Scott Roth said.

“He’s well-travelled and been in a lot of different situations and played in a lot of big games, has a little chip on his shoulder and wanted to come here and prove himself.

“So he fits the culture of what we do here. He's a quiet assassin and a quiet leader for us, someone who is steady and reliable.”

The new faces set the stage for a cracking grand final rematch, with the JackJumpers searching for ways to stop Grand Final MVP and early MVP favourite Xavier Cooks, while also having to deal with Walton, Justin Simon, Jordy Hunter and Tim Soares for the first time.

At the other end, Doyle and Rashard Kelly provide a new look, while Jack McVeigh will be keen to make a statement that he can produce against the best.

The man who produced the defining moment of that series was DJ Vasiljevic, whose clutch tripled sealed a crucial away win, and he can’t wait for Sunday.

“I believe they see this game as a revenge for the finals last year, so they are going to be prepared,” he said.

“Scott Roth has done an unbelievable job in establishing a culture in Tassie and no matter who they recruit everyone buys in, so we are prepared for a fiery intense game come Sunday …

“Taking care of the ball would be number one key, as they play an aggressive style of defence with hard shows and team defence.”