Preview: Sydney v Cairns (Game 3)

When: 2pm (AEDT), Sunday 19 February, 2023
Where: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
Broadcast: Live & free on ESPN via Kayo Freebies, Live on ESPN (NZ)
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Cairns 93 (Hogg 25, McCall 20, Waardenburg 15) d Sydney 82 (Walton 22, Simon 19, Noi 12) – Game 2 at Cairns Convention Centre

The Taipans produced a post-season masterpiece as Adam Forde and his crew made key adjustments from Game 1, crowding Xavier Cooks, limiting the Kings’ patented paint game and forcing Sydney into a string of uncharacteristic turnovers, which a fresh Tahj McCall pushed the other way at lightning speed to help Cairns play on the front foot all night.

In an at-times wild contest, the Snakes ran up 54 points in the opening half, firing at will from the three-point line and then attacking the undersized Sydney interior with Tim Soares and Jordan Hunter both seated. While the Kings’ defence was more resolute after half-time, Cairns held them to only 14 points in the third term to prevent any serious challenges.

What’s working?

Applying heat – McCall has played Sydney twice this season for two Ws, the Kings coughing the ball up 20.5 times in those contests, compared to 14.7 when he’s been absent. It was the Snakes skipper who brought the heat from the first possession on Friday, and combined with Bul Kuol’s up-and-in approach on Cooks forced the Kings to play rushed.

While 20 turnovers was one obvious result of that pressure, Sydney’s 50 per cent two-point conversion and lowly 42 points in the paint were another – down from 60 per cent and 58 paint points in Game 1 and 56 per cent against Cairns this season – as Cooks and Co attacked the wall-up defence with impatience, rather than with Wednesday’s clinical composure.

Derrick Walton Jr. – With Sydney’s offence disrupted and Cooks’ seated with his ankle injury, much responsibility fell into the hands of Walton, who stepped up impressively with 16 points in the final 18 minutes on 6/7 shooting to almost drag his team back into the game. He finished the night 4/6 at the cup, 2/3 from midrange and 2/3 outside.

Walton Jr. is averaging 21.5ppg and 5.5apg in this series, shooting 14/18 inside (78%) and 3/6 outside, the Kings -12 in his 16:53 on the bench. If Cooks is sidelined on Sunday even more will be expected, but Sydney are 5-4 when Derrick scores 20 or more, compared to 8-2 when he has 12 or less and 8-2 when he dishes seven or more dimes. Game 3 might be a case of finding more ways for teammates to feed off their PG.

What needs stopping?

Vasiljevic bricks – The most obvious passing target is DJ, who isn’t having a fun time of it with 0/7 outside shooting in this series and 4/29 against Cairns this season. Sydney need him connecting, and the good news is cometh the hour, cometh the man. In last season’s grand final with Jaylen Adams out he had 20 points including the game-sealing triple, while against SEM this season with Walton Jr missing he burned for 42 points on 10/14 from the arc.

Tahj and the Snake shooters – Cairns’ marksmen aren't having many issues, dropping 12 trifectas in both games of the series, with nine different Taipans connecting from range. In three meets at Qudos they’ve made 13.7 treys at 36 per cent. McCall’s penetration has been a key dimension in his two meetings with the Kings, averaging 19ppg and 5.5apg to account for 35 per cent of his team’s score and set up a quarter of their three-point makes.

Who’s missing key men?

Cairns are again without Keanu Pinder and are awaiting a fitness test for Shannon Scott, while Sydney superstar Xavier Cooks is expected to be a game-time decision.

Who’s matching up?

Kouat Noi v Sam Waardenburg – It’s only the whistle that has curtailed Noi in this series, racking up 20 points at 62 per cent and seven rebounds in 34 minutes, but committing nine infringements in that time. If he can find foul discipline he could be a difference maker on Sunday, and may need to be if the X-man is absent or restricted by his ankle.

Waardenburg is a big factor for Cairns, leading them in rebounds in both games as he’s accumulated 26 points, 17 rebounds, five o-boards and four blocks to man the middle in Pinder’s absence. Critically in Game 2 he drew nine fouls to put Sydney’s rotations under pressure, and his ability to deal with all the Kings’ different frontcourt men will be a key in Game 3.

Justin Simon v DJ Hogg – How do you defend Hogg as the ball-handler with McCall and Sam Waardenburg constantly slipping or ghosting screens? That’s the key question for the Kings because they didn’t have an answer on Friday and may not have Cooks’ versatility to rely on. That trio scored 60 of Cairns’ 93 points in Game 2 and dished 12 of their 14 assists.

The question for Cairns is how to deal with Simon, who has accumulated 29 points, 18 rebounds, four steals and three assists for the series, shooting 50 per cent inside and 3/7 from the arc. He was a man possessed on Friday with six offensive boards, and will we see Sydney deploy him as a dog on the ball in Game 3 as the Hawks did so effectively in NBL21?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DJ HOGG IS SOMETHING ELSE ?<br>TWO MASSIVE SHOTS. TWO MASSIVE MAKES.<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/Dj_hogg1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dj_hogg1</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/gmyT2aWM0O">pic.twitter.com/gmyT2aWM0O</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1626529517987835905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 17, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

While’s it’s tempting for the media to play up former Kings coach Adam Forde returning to his old home court for a deciding Game 3, he was having none of it.

“This is my home court here, it’s been my home for a long time now,” he said post-game.

“I know you’ve got to put in about 15 years to be considered a local in Cairns, but hopefully we can fast track that Cairns citizenship and get in sooner.”

Of course, there’s no better way for Forde to get the keys to his new city that leading his community-owned side past the ‘corporate Kings’ and into the Snakes’ first championship series since 2015.

While Sydney have home-court advantage, that isn’t fazing the ever-confident Snakes boss.

“We've won there before,” Forde said.

“The boys are confident, we should have won Game 1, that’s our mindset and we’ll go in there with a game plan, what we want to do, execute it and live with the result.”

However, Forde knows how tough a challenge it will be.

Even if Xavier Cooks is ruled out, the Kings were able to manage bodies through the final week of the regular season and then rest during the play-in portion of the finals.

In contrast, Cairns had to make the final four the hard way, losing to Tasmania before outlasting the Wildcats and moving straight onto Sydney, where they weren’t able to produce their best in Game 1.

With key players missing from each of those contests it has taken its toll on the remainder of the roster, which made Friday’s 40 minutes of high intensity even more impressive.

“I've got to credit the guys because this is four games in eight days and it wasn’t a friendly film session this morning, but this is how they respond, we always tend to do a good job bouncing back,” Forde said.

“The good thing about Sydney is they’ve gone deep into their bench all season so they’ll run some minor sets that are different depending on line-up, but they haven't gone away from what works for those guys.

“The big thing for us is this will be five games in 10 days, that’s important that we make sure we manage bodies and we do all the right things to put ourselves in the best position with an early tip-off on Sunday.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Antonio says NO! Then he says it AGAIN!! ?<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/jonah__antonio?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jonah__antonio</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/hBtETaxGRK">pic.twitter.com/hBtETaxGRK</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1626523251060137984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 17, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Taipans can expect a similar bounce back from Sydney, who rarely matched their effort levels on Friday night.

“Credit to Cairns, they kicked our ass,” Kings coach Chase Buford said.

“From the opening tip they played with more juice, they played with a desperation like their season was on the line and we didn’t match it. That’s super disappointing.

“Proud of the way the group fought back in the second half, I thought we turned up the defence and guarded them for the first 18 of so minutes of the second half and gave ourselves chances.”

You’d expect both teams to bring the juice on Sunday, and that means some key tactical adjustments could make a difference.

For Sydney, an absent or limited Cooks poses some obvious and tough questions.

Will coach Buford go with more small-ball line-ups featuring Kouat Noi, Angus Glover, Jaylin Galloway and Justin Simon in the frontcourt, or will he look for more minutes from centres Tim Soares and Jordan Hunter.

The twin towers combined for just one point, five rebounds and four turnovers in 18 minutes on Friday, and while Soares was a factor in the series opener before fouling out quickly in Cairns, Buford hasn’t found trust in Hunter against the Snakes’ speed.

Where Soares stretches the floor to open up driving lanes, Hunter’s impressive roll-out game and threat on the offensive glass could force adjustments and open up the perimeter.

Whatever the line-ups, Buford will be asking his team to replicate Simon’s immense energy levels from Game 2.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Justin isn&#39;t stopping now! <br><br>? Watch it LIVE on ESPN via Kayo Sports Freebies <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheKings?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeTheKings</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBL23?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBL23</a> <a href="https://t.co/n2sEXUlBS7">pic.twitter.com/n2sEXUlBS7</a></p>&mdash; Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) <a href="https://twitter.com/SydneyKings/status/1626519050317619202?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 17, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The Taipans face similar uncertainty awaiting Shannon Scott’s availability, but have Majok Deng fresh and ready to go after coach Forde opted not to use him on Friday.

That was largely due to the performance of Lat Mayen, who came off the bench to contribute 12 points at 67 per cent inside, 40 per cent outside, six rebounds, two o-boards and a game-high +18 in 28 minutes.

After playing 81 minutes all season, Mayen has played 86 minutes in three games over the past week, his ability to play multiple positions a key to covering for injured teammates.

“Lat was the one earlier in the season registering DNPs, now he’s playing elimination games, getting 12 points, six rebounds and making a massive impact,” coach Forde said.

Can Cairns’ stars back up again for their fifth game in 10 days and keep pace with the high-octane Kings?

With a huge Qudos Bank Arena crowd sure to be on hand it’s a massive ask. After all they’ve accomplished this season few would write the Taipans off, but the Kings are happy the decider is at their place.

Following a poor performance by their standards in Game 2, expect some serious defensive intensity and that trademark Sydney speed from tip-off to avoid giving up a half-century by intermission for the third-straight time.

“You saw stretches of the where we were playing the way we feel we can play that’s the style of basketball we want, it’s just a case of coming and doing it from the jump and not digging ourselves a hole in the first half,” Shaun Bruce said.

“We’re excited, it’s exactly what you said, what we play for. We’d love to get it done tonight but we earned the right to host two home games this finals series and we’re looking forward to getting there on Sunday.”