Preview: Illawarra v Tasmania (Round 15)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Tuesday 10 January, 2023
Where: WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong
Broadcast: ESPN; Kayo; Foxtel; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Tasmania 87 (McVeigh 15, Doyle 14, Kelly 14) d Illawarra 60 (Froling 19, Mathiang 10) – Round 12 at MyState Bank Arena, Hobart

With Michael Frazier II and Tyler Harvey sidelined, Illawarra needed a Herculean effort in Hobart and they got it for the first 24 minutes, a Mangok Mathiang deuce bringing them within six. That was as good as it got though, Tasmania unleashing a 37-12 run with their pressure defence too much for the young Hawks. Jack McVeigh led five JackJumpers in double figures with 15 points in 22 minutes, while Sam Froling again paced his side.

What happened last game?

The Hawks have bounced back from that capitulation and some more bad injury news, and were on the cusp of toppling Adelaide when they led 89-81 late in the piece. They couldn’t finish the job but lost no admirers. Tassie are admired far and wide for their “grit and grind” but their combative style is no longer having the same impact, and they were picked apart clinically by Chris Goulding, Marcus Lee and Melbourne at home last round. The JJs are currently in fourth, but could be out of the top six with two Ls in the next three days.

What’s working?

Jamming the lanes – Saturday’s opening 34 minutes were not pretty watching for anyone wanting to defend the island, with United racking up 83 points at 60 per cent, dishing 17 assists on 26 made field goals and getting to the foul line 28 times. Cue some desperation, Tassie began holding and checking as per their trademarks, Melbourne’s passing lanes got jammed and they managed nine points at 33 per cent and one assist in the final six minutes. There’s no secret to their recipe, but can the JJs cook it for 40 minutes without sending teams to the line?

Fighting – The Hawks could have thrown in the towel a number of times this season, as a side 1000km to their north appear to, but they are representing the Illawarra with pride. In six of their past seven games – against Cairns twice, Adelaide, Perth, Melbourne and Sydney – they’ve been in front of within a basket in the final term as their young crew refuses to quit. The only exception was their loss to Tassie, so a statement can be made on Tuesday.

What needs to be stopped?

Full-strength opponents – The JackJumpers may have bullied depleted New Zealand, South East Melbourne and Hawks sides – allowing just 72.0ppg while forcing 21 turnovers – but in their past four games against near-full strength Adelaide, Cairns, Sydney and Melbourne outfits have seen them leak 93.3ppg at 55 per cent while only forcing 12 cough-ups. Defensive specialists Sam McDaniel and Matt Kenyon didn’t see the court on Saturday as they ease back from injury, but they are desperately needed for the run home to give Tassie’s D some steel.

Coughing it up – Where the JackJumpers’ defence looks great is when teams play on the backfoot against pressure and make careless errors. That has been the Hawk’s kryptonite this season, losing six games by 20 points or more with an average of 16.3 cough-ups and being outscored by 66 points from turnovers, compared to just 11.9 miscues in their other 14 games. Last time against the JJs, they coughed it up 20 times and were -14 on PFTs.

Who’s missing key men?

The JackJumpers are expected to be at full strength for Tuesday’s game, while Hawks stars Peyton Siva and Michael Frazier II have been ruled out for the season and the club isn’t expected to sign replacement imports, with Kevin White added to the lineup for Tuesday.

Who’s matching up?

Tyler Harvey v Milton Doyle – Where these star shooting guards go, so go their teams, and Harvey is doing everything he can to get his beloved Hawks win number three. T-Raw has piled on 23.7ppg on 4.7 triples at 45 per cent in his past three games, while Doyle’s past two have delivered 22.5ppg on 6/14 from deep, 4.5 assists and 3.5 steals. Kenyon, McDaniel and Wani Swaka Lo Buluk are likely to lead these assignments – good luck boys.

Sam Froling v Will Magnay – Harvey’s young co-captain is also laying it all on the line to drag his young team over the line, averaging 18.6ppg and 8.4rpg in his past nine outings to become arguably the leading candidate for the Most Improved Player award. He had 19 points at 50 per cent and five o-boards last time against Tassie, so look for Magnay and Co to redeem some pride by denying touches and beating Sam on the glass on Tuesday.

Deng Deng v Jack McVeigh – Deng’s past three contests have produced 13.7ppg at 62 per cent inside, 5/10 outside and 8.7rpg as he continues the best season of his NBL career. After going 4/17 from deep in a five-game stretch battling injury, McVeigh rediscovered shooting form against Melbourne with 18 points on 3/4 from the arc, but didn’t grab a single o-board.  When Jack has three or more offensive rebounds the JackJumpers are 5-2.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bread and butter, except it&#39;s Deng and Dunk. <br><br>? Live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/Wq4YykExan">pic.twitter.com/Wq4YykExan</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1605861883348520960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Who’s saying what?

A promising performance turned into a 27-point hiding last time Illawarra took on the JackJumpers, as Jacob Jackomas’ team wasn’t able to play at Tasmania’s level for long enough.  

“We obviously got a bit fatigued and they turned it up,” he said post-game.

“We've got guys, who haven't played minutes, playing over 15 minutes which they’re not used to, as much as we train it’s not the same.

“They changed their pick-and-roll coverage … and I think we went away from things and we got into fatigue mistakes.”

Jackomas wasn’t wallowing in negativity afterwards though, having watched his team clinically pick the JackJumpers’ pressure defence apart early in the game.

“I thought at the beginning the guys did a great job of trying to play a different way to score, they were on the plan,” he said.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">On the first day of christmas, my true love gave to me ball movement 101?<br><br>? 10 Peach &amp; 10play | Live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HawkNation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HawkNation</a> <a href="https://t.co/5PIUAFFN41">pic.twitter.com/5PIUAFFN41</a></p>&mdash; Illawarra Hawks Basketball (@illawarrahawks) <a href="https://twitter.com/illawarrahawks/status/1605848947339120640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 22, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We did have a good first half and we did some good things, we stuck to the game plan with guys that don’t (usually) play for us.

“I can’t sell them out now and say it’s not good enough, we are a young group and there were some maturity things the guys will learn from, but we couldn’t learn on the run.”

They have learned. Despite continuing to play multiple imports down, they’ve taken three playoff contenders down to the wire in the two rounds since, now they get to see if they can match Tassie’s intensity for 40 minutes.

“No one’s expecting anything out of us and we do have a young group that can be a little bit fearless and that’s what happened in the first quarter,” Jackomas said.

“Now to maintain that against a team that plays all four quarters, and is probably one of the best in the league (at that) … is a big ask.”

The reality is the JackJumpers haven't consistently been playing at their usual intensity for four quarters, and Melbourne showed them up in that area on Saturday.

“I thought they were playing with a little bit more of an edge than we were for most of the game, hustle plays and energy plays, and the third quarter they broke open,” coach Scott Roth said.

“You’ve got to be tougher for longer, we’re onto the next game and the message is quite simple, we've got to win a few games or we’re not in the playoffs and we go home.

“It’s pretty straight forward over the next two or three weeks for a lot of teams and you’ve got to take advantage when you can.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It’s a thing of beauty ? watch live on ESPN via Kayo &amp; Foxtel <a href="https://t.co/BIQPRMXhWN">pic.twitter.com/BIQPRMXhWN</a></p>&mdash; Tasmania JackJumpers ? (@JackJumpers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackJumpers/status/1611630189959876609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 7, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Roth’s men have been trying to recreate last season’s physical defence while adjusting to the current tight interpretations, especially around the basket, and it’s fair to say that’s a work in progress.

“The foul discipline’s been an issue with us all year, in and out, and we pride ourselves on being up-and-in and being able to be physical and aggressive on the ball, we've just got to do it in a smart way,” centre Jarred Bairstow said.

“When we can we’re really good, and when we send teams to the foul line 31 times it’s pretty difficult to win games more often than not.”

Help is on the way in the form of Sam McDaniel and Matt Kenyon, who have been desperately missed the past two months, and they’ll play small but important roles against Harvey and Co on Tuesday.

“We’ll slowly try to get them back in and pick our spots when we think we can use them,” Roth said.

“We do need them on the floor and we’ll try to get them out there gradually against match-ups moving forward that will benefit us.

“But to be coming back from injury at this part of the season with not a lot of practice time and not a lot of time to get game rhythm, having been out as long as them is difficult.”