Preview: Cairns v Brisbane (Round 17)

When: 8pm (AEDT), Saturday 28 January, 2023
Where: Cairns Convention Centre
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

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Who won last time?

Cairns 107 (Waardenburg 24, Hogg 23, Ayre 20) d Brisbane 81 (Johnson 32, Stattmann 10) – Round 14, Nissan Arena, Brisbane
A five-point game three minutes into the second quarter became a 32-point rout in the third as DJ Hogg and Sam Waardenburg combined for 32 points in a 52-25 run bracketing intermission. It was annihilation number four in the Bullets’ sorry season, only Tyler Johnson providing any real resistance with Brisbane -4 in his 27:30 and -22 in the other 12:30.

What happened last game?

Annihilation number six came this round as the undermanned Bullets were simply outclassed by a full strength New Zealand, Johnson again outstanding, but again with too few friends. Cairns headed South East for a gripping contest with the Phoenix, but Mitch Creek and his import trio proved too much after a facial injury sidelined Keanu Pinder.

What’s working?

Beating Brisbane – How about seven straight Sunshine Stoush victories by an average margin of 11.2 points? Let’s be frank, Cairns have made Brisbane their bunnies, outworking their supposed big brother time and time again since the start of NBL22. Before that, the Bullets had won five straight meetings, and you can bet the Taipans still haven't forgotten.

Aron Baynes inside – The Boomers big continued his late-season resurgence on Thursday, averaging 14.7ppg and 7.3rpg in just over 24 minutes per night the past three outings. Perhaps the tell-tale sign Baynes is getting his old touch back is his 57 per cent conversion from two-point range, after making just 44 per cent inside in his opening 18 games.

What needs stopping?

This skid – A two-game losing skid doesn’t seem like much, but when New Zealand win two on the bounce at the same time, a three-game clearance in second place shrinks to just one. Given the Breakers’ percentage is far superior to their Queensland counterparts, the Taipans may need to win their final three games to get direct passage to the semi-finals.

Hogg inside – While DJ is known for his pure outside shooting stroke, 14.3 of his 19.3ppg in the season series with Brisbane have come from ‘ones and twos’, shooting 72 per cent from two-point range and 17/20 from the foul line. While he’s shot 5/21 in the Sunshine Stoushes, his past four games have delivered 15/36 (42%) creating a nightmare match-up.

Who’s missing key men?

Keanu Pinder is a confirmed out for Cairns, while the Bullets will be without Jason Cadee, Tanner Krebs and Harry Froling.

Who’s matching up?

Tahj McCall v Nathan Sobey – In an 11-game stretch where the Taipans went 9-2, McCall turned the ball over just 1.8 times per night while averaging 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals. The past two outings, however, he’s had 10 cough-ups to five dimes and two thefts. If he can look after the ball and help contain Sobey – who’s averaged a meagre 7.3ppg on 8/35 shooting in this season series – then Cairns will be in the box seat for another sweep.

Shannon Scott v Tyler Johnson – Scott has shot 1/11 (9%) in two games with Pinder back compared to 36/63 (57%) in six games without him, so look for a more assertive showing with his centre again sidelined. His defence has remained at a high level though, and will be needed against the red-hot Johnson, who has produced 23.3ppg at 50 per cent from the field in his past three, hitting 10/21 from the arc and 14/18 from the stripe.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OK TJ ?<br><br>The Bullets are taking a three-point lead into the final quarter - and Tyler Johnson finished the third in style ?<br><br>Catch the action live on ESPN via Kayo Sports and Foxtel. <a href="https://t.co/d27M5lyfwN">pic.twitter.com/d27M5lyfwN</a></p>&mdash; NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1616014371146326019?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 Who’s saying what?

There was something missing when the Brisbane Bullets ran out to take on the Breakers on Thursday night.

“He’s pretty furious missing the game,” Nathan Sobey said of long-time teammate Jason Cadee.

“He’s tried to keep that streak alive for a long time. I've played here now for four seasons and every game he’s been a part of that so it was a little bit different to not have him run out there with the group.”

Before Thursday, Cadee had not been a spectator in his four years as a Bullet, with his last missed game being way back in the NBL14 season when he was a 36er.

It wasn’t just his smile that was missed either, his ability to handle pressure, organise the offence and refocus teammates in tough moments all sorely lacking when New Zealand put their defensive foot down.

“Our start was really positive, the ball moved, we played from inside out, we did a good job of getting Baynes some touches early, Sobes got on the rim, we got ourselves to the foul line, we defended with the right intent in terms of out disruption up the floor,” coach Greg Vanderjagt said.

“(The Breakers’) ability to sustain pressure and physicality really sped us up offensively. I think we had 10 turnovers at the half and they had 18 points in transition in the first half so when you have that mountain of possession against you it becomes really difficult.”

It doesn’t get any easier, with Cadee again missing on Saturday and the similarly-aggressive Taipans next on the menu.

“We need to do a better job of handling that physicality and finding ways to put guys in positions of strength when the heat gets turned up,” Vanderjagt said.

“Everybody’s responsible for that to different levels, we’re going to play Cairns in 48 hours’ time who are right around the mark of New Zealand.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Statty ?? Bangers<br><br>Watch on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/w9aVhPdbZX">pic.twitter.com/w9aVhPdbZX</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1618532851728945152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 26, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

If they can handle the heat good things await, with the Pinder-less Snakes struggling for a match-up with Aron Baynes.

The Cairns native had 17 points at 61 per cent in his first homecoming game in Round 11 as Brisbane gave the Taipans a mighty scare, and Vanderjagt is confident he’ll have the same impact this time.

“I think he’s going to come out and play his backside off every night no matter where we play. Obviously going home probably has a little more meaning for him, but it’s certainly not going to change the way we approach it or what he’s going to produce for us,” Vandy said.

“The last time we were up there he had a really good night, he’s potentially without Pinder for Cairns and he’s going to continue to be a focal point of what we do offensively and defensively, and the production we get out of him is going to go a long way to us being successful.”

Nathan Sobey knows this won’t be an easy challenge, but he can’t wait to make amends for Thursday.

“We’ll continue to try and play our best basketball and we’re really focused on what we’re trying to do as a group, to be better night in, night out,” he said.

“They have a great crowd and obviously they're playing for a lot, the top two is in their sight and to be able to go into a hostile environment, it doesn’t really get much better than that.”

The question is, can Brisbane show the defensive application that helped Tasmania and South East Melbourne shut down the Snakes offence, holding them to 77.5ppg in consecutive losses.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">FANCY move from McCall! ?<br><br>? <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@cairnstaipans</a> | ? <a href="https://twitter.com/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@espn</a> <a href="https://t.co/lRhalABCvb">pic.twitter.com/lRhalABCvb</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1618194442430853121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 25, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

“We only had five assists at half-time and that generally shows a lack of ball movement on our part. It’s the second game in a week where the ball’s not moving around the floor as much as we like, and we’re doing that at the wrong time of the season,” coach Adam Forde said.

“Everything that’s making us play bad basketball is 100 per cent fixable, but we've got nine days left in the season and we’re still not guaranteed a play-in spot, we’ve got to really lock in and finish the season on the right note so we roll into finals.”

Ultimately, it’s about finding pressure releases when the game slows and doing it as a team, rather than going one-out and coughing up 18 turnovers as they did in both recent defeats.

“We forced it, especially in the half-court when it slows down,” Forde said.

“There were a couple of times where it was just a dribble attack, you’re not going to get a lot of results from that.

“You can still play with pace in the half-court, but where do you get your opportunities from? That’s something we've got to navigate and speed up the process to get it right.”