Preview: Brisbane vs New Zealand - Round 12, NBL24

Monday, December 25, 2023

New Zealand is starting to return to its NBL23 form, while the Bullets have experienced a pair of tough losses.

Wednesday, December 27 at 7:30pm AEDT | Nissan Arena

Watch: Live on ESPN via Kayo - International viewership details
Box scores: Download the free NBL App

Brisbane announced the signing of import Casey Prather to replace the injured DJ Mitchell for the remainder of the season. The three-time NBL champion is set to touch down in Australia the day the Bullets take on the Breakers.

Brisbane lost to Adelaide earlier in the round in a defeat that snapped the 36ers’ four-game losing streak.

Form and fitness has seen New Zealand Next Star Mantas Rubstavicius push into draft projections, following a difficult start to the season.

Will McDowell-White and Zylan Cheatham have returned to the Breakers’ active roster in the past two games, but Cheatham has registered two DNPs.

Finn Delany will be missing for New Zealand for four to six weeks due to a calf injury.

Brisbane
88-95 loss to Adelaide
101-102 loss to Cairns
68-103 loss to Melbourne

New Zealand
109-101 win over Sydney
111-82 win over Cairns
80-97 loss to Tasmania

Chris Smith
It may seem like a ridiculously simple piece of analysis, but when Chris Smith plays well, the Bullets tend to win. When he plays poorly, they tend to lose.

Smith was a near anonymous presence in Sunday’s defeat to Adelaide, where he scored just five points and missed all his three-point attempts in the seven-point loss.

He’s proved to be a game-winner at different stages of the season in NBL24. He was named Foot Locker Player of the Game in Brisbane’s tight pair of Round 9 victories over Cairns and Illawarra that, at the time, established some breathing room in the top six.

Smith signed a two-year deal with the Bullets and will be around in NBL25, but he’s still something of an enigma for Justin Schueller’s men. It wasn't that long ago he was being discussed as a Best Sixth Man candidate, and if he can re-find his shot, Brisbane is a far more dangerous team.

“Sobes was outstanding from start to end, but as a coach I have to find ways to get more out of more people and right now that’s been a challenge for us in these last couple.” – Justin Schueller following the loss to Adelaide.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"He's been terrific."<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterHooley12?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PeterHooley12</a> praised Chris Smith's play off the bench for the Bullets on NBL Now. <a href="https://t.co/DLuVAaungj">pic.twitter.com/DLuVAaungj</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1732947038004973875?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 8, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Mantas Rubstavicius
A litany of injuries to both Mantas Rubstavicius and the wider Breakers organisation limited the Next Star's opening half of the season, but the Lithuanian is beginning to show why he was considered the most professionally ready of the current class.

Rubstavicius starred with a near double-double 21 points and eight rebounds in New Zealand’s big win over Cairns in Round 11, before backing it up the following week with 17 points in the Breakers’ victory over Sydney.

Maor has challenged the rangy wing to hit the glass more and contribute to the side’s rebounding – which as a unit has been the worst in the competition for much of the season – and Rubstavicius has taken on the challenge with aplomb.

If he can continue to register these types of numbers for the remainder of New Zealand’s NBL24 campaign, he could be one of the late risers in experts’ mock draft projections – because the level of pure shooting Rubstavicius provides is a weapon every team in the world could, and should, be interested in.

“This kid, eight rebounds, nine free throws, aggressive against the press – not what you see from kids usually. He played big.” – Mody Maor following the win over Cairns.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">AND. ???.<br><br>Didn't young Next Star Mantas Rubštavi?ius love that? ?<br><br>Catch the action live on ESPN via Kayo | Sky Sport in NZ <a href="https://t.co/AiiN7RZJ6N">pic.twitter.com/AiiN7RZJ6N</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1738092279330398246?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Nathan Sobey vs Parker Jackson-Cartwright
Parker Jackson-Cartwright has thrived with the ball in his hands in the absence of Will McDowell-White – so much so that McDowell-White was coming off the bench for a period before his leg injury.

Jackson-Cartwright, however, also possesses the skillset to play off ball and be a pure scoring influence, and he will potentially fill a similar role in New Zealand’s offence to what Nathan Sobey does for Brisbane.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nathan Sobey with a HUGE clutch block<br><br>Watch live and free on ESPN via Kayo Freebies | 10 Peach & 10 Play ? <a href="https://t.co/W6Uq7b7XR9">pic.twitter.com/W6Uq7b7XR9</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1731207269696549039?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 3, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sobey’s trialing as a point guard under the previous regime may not have been a resounding success, but it’s helped him possess the ability to both run the offence and be the benefactor for strong point guard play from traditional floor generals Shannon Scott and Mitch Norton.

Both Brisbane and New Zealand possess a number of offensive weapons that can change the tide of a game. You only need to look down the list at players like Aron Baynes, Anthony Lamb, Josh Bannan, Mantas Rubstavicius, Isaac White and Will McDowell-White to know any player can win the game at any time for either of these two sides.

Too often each team has lived and died by the performances of Sobey or ‘PJC’, and they’ll once again prove key cogs in any pursuit of victory.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How did he get that to fall? ?<br><br>Parker Jackson-Cartwright with the incredible finish ??<br><br>Catch the action live on ESPN via Kayo | Sky Sport in NZ ? <a href="https://t.co/D0ZW5PvFFq">pic.twitter.com/D0ZW5PvFFq</a></p>— NBL (@NBL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1725090655045591263?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 16, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Nathan Sobey has scored at least 30 points in his last four appearances in Round 12 of an NBL season. He dropped 36 in the loss to Adelaide earlier this round, can he put the Breakers to the sword?

Gettyimages 1861458714
Nathan Sobey.