Preview: Brisbane v Cairns (Round 14)

When: 7.30pm (AEDT), Thursday 5 January, 2023
Where: Nissan Arena, Brisbane
Broadcast: ESPN; Foxtel; Kayo; Sky NZ
LIVE SCORES & STATS

Who won last time?

Cairns 85 (Kuol 23, Hogg 15, McCall 13) d Brisbane 76 (Baynes 17, Sobey 13, Gak 10) – Round 11, Cairns Convention Centre
In the first game of the Greg Vanderjagt era, Brisbane motored out of the blocks with Aron Baynes a big target inside, but in the second term the Taipans wrestled back control of the contest. The Bullets were no longer able to find Baynes around the rim, find Bul Kuol in transition as the Cairns marksman dropped four-of-five from the arc, nor find bodies to box out as Keanu Pinder and Tahj McCall combined for nine o-boards to starve the visitors of run.

What happened last game?

Hawks big Sam Froling gave the Taipans a lesson on the offensive boards and almost everywhere else, but Shannon Scott continued his resurgence and Majok Deng and Ben Ayre provided the bench spark to get their team home. Brisbane were well beaten in the possession game and unable to defend the arc against United, outscored by 24 from deep in a 13-point loss, an ominous sign coming up against the three-point happy Snakes.

What’s working?

Talking free throws – One positive from the trip to Melbourne was the Bullets shooting 31 free throws – after Greg Vanderjagt had let his team, officials and opponents know they weren’t getting their fair share – with Nathan Sobey and DJ Mitchell shooting 16 between them. Cairns were on the other side of that ledger after Jacob Jackomas put all in sundry on notice and his team led that category 26-18. Normally the Taipans give up the second-fewest trips to the foul line, can they wall up against Sobey and Co on Thursday?

Shannon Scott – After taking 14 free throws in his previous 15 games, Scott has taken 12 in his past three as he puts his foot to the floor with Keanu Pinder injured. Against Adelaide and Illawarra, with KP out from tip-off, he compiled 49 points on nine-of-12 inside and nine-of-14 outside, including 17 points at 75 per cent across the two fourth quarters. When Shannon drops two or more triples Cairns are 8-1, compared to 4-6 when he makes one or less.

What needs stopping?

Jacking it up – Brisbane have been trying to find that balance between inside and outside all season, but they haven't quite got it right against the Taipans, who lead shots at the rim 74-58 and free-throw attempts 57-36 in the season series. Two culprits have been Sobey and Jason Cadee, who shot a combined 5/33 from long range across the two games while getting to the foul line 11 times. Sobes made more of an attempt in their last meeting, but struggled against the Snake’s length going two-of-eight in the paint and four-of-nine from the foul line.

Gorjok Gak – The Taipans gave up 16 o-boards to Illawarra, with Froling grabbing eight, so they’d better be ready to box out the uber-long Gak, who corralled an extraordinary 10 offensive rebounds against Melbourne. The Bullets’ first-year phenom has now averaged 11ppg at 62 per cent, 7.1 rebounds, 3.4 o-boards, 1.6 assists and 1.1 blocks in his past seven games, and will be a key against the Taipans’ athletic frontcourt. He had 10 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and went +6 in 19 minutes of the Round 11 loss to Cairns.

Who’s matching up?

Nathan Sobey v Tahj McCall – Sobey’s past two games against Cairns have produced just 10ppg at 23 per cent, while his 11 games surrounding that have delivered 20.5ppg at 44 per cent. The Snakes have a trio of terrific perimeter defenders in McCall, Kuol and Scott, but given Tahj went straight to Tyler Harvey last round he might do the same with Sobes and then test out his ability to recover from his straight-line drives in d-trans.

Tanner Krebs v DJ Hogg – Remarkably, Brisbane are +26 with Krebs on the floor in the past three games and -38 in the 31 minutes he’s been resting. While his dogged defence is usually reserved for opposition guards, he might be the man to deny Hogg catches in dangerous spots. While DJ is just one-of-10 from deep against Brisbane this season, he’s been a deadly 12/16 from inside the arc, with only one of those buckets coming outside four feet.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">That was SMOOTH ?<br><br>LIVE on ESPN <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OrangeArmy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OrangeArmy</a> ? <a href="https://t.co/OQBA5s66LB">pic.twitter.com/OQBA5s66LB</a></p>&mdash; Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) <a href="https://twitter.com/CairnsTaipans/status/1609849647610335235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 2, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 Who’s saying what?

What’s the biggest thing that’s had to change for Sam Waardenburg and Co with Keanu Pinder on the sidelines?

“That rebounding mentality,” he said without hesitation.

“It was in my mind just to turn around and box out whoever I was guarding so someone else can get the rebound, the guys are doing that really well, DJ (Hogg) with eight rebounds, Jooky (Deng) with seven, everyone’s got that mentality and that’s the biggest thing without KP.”

If Aron Baynes is back in the Bullets lineup on Thursday night, that’s going to be a huge job for the light-bodied Kiwi, but he’s looking forward to it.

“Any time you get to play someone like that who’s played in the NBA several years that’s always exciting. I love challenges like that coming from college and the ACC playing someone every night who’s probably going to be a first-round pick,” Waardenburg said.

“You play for those match-ups and that’s probably why you play the game. I’d love for him to play and I’d love to have that match-up.”

For Cairns coach Adam Forde, who will miss the game due to illness, the size of Brisbane’s bigs is one of the big challenges his team faces, as they look to maintain heat on New Zealand in second place.

“Sobey’s rolling at the moment and they’ve got a lot of bigs with Gak doing very well and Baynes,” he said.

“(They’re) another team that’s doing pretty well because they're going with that mindset that there’s nothing to lose, and Vandy’s doing a good job of rallying the boys with the expectation that no matter what you do go out there and play with pride.”

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">GAK STARTS THE NEW YEAR WITH A BANG ?<br><br>Watch live and free on 10peach and 10peach or ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/wYBOlxGv9G">pic.twitter.com/wYBOlxGv9G</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1609419853169033217?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 1, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Yet that pride was missing on Sunday against Melbourne as they got smashed on their defensive glass, Isaac Humphries having more o-boards than any Bullet had d-boards.

“There were a lot of things we can control in the game tonight, and when you give a team 39 additional possessions, 20 o-boards and 19 turnovers, that mountain of possession begins to take its toll at some point,” coach Greg Vanderjagt said.

“We dug ourselves a hole in the third quarter. I think we had seven turnovers in our first 11 or 12 possessions, but on the back of DJ Mitchell we found some energy and got back in the game.

“Then we just have breakdowns defensively. We overhelp on Barlow, three-ball. Goulding who is an incredible player and shooter, he sticks four threes in the third quarter and has 14 points in the third to break it open.

“There’s a lot of things we can control, a lot of attention to detail and scout that we just don’t concentrate.”

Veteran Tyler Johnson’s public call-out of his team resonated with Bullets fans, wanting a good look in the mirror for his inconsistent team.

“I think that’s all the guys looking at ourselves in the locker room and understanding that we can have all the scout, we can have all the video that we want, but when we are on the court, what are we going to do when things get really hard?” he said.

“Are we just going to be like, ‘It’s just their night tonight?’, or are we going to dig in and make that extra effort or box-out and come over the top when you see somebody boxing out?”

He didn’t spare himself either, calling out his own mid-level season to date.

“I think that’s been the story of the season, just pretty well, I'm pretty disappointed in myself,” he said.

“We've had a lot of changeover and a lot of things happen this season, and from being a guy that’s had some of the most experience in the locker room I feel like I've let the team down in the sense of (not) being more of a stabiliser.”

There are positives for the Bullets though, and Johnson has set his sights on making sure the likes of Gak and Mitchell continue their impressive growth.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">caught one ?<br><br>Tanner ?? DJ<br><br>Thursday is Whacking Day at Nissan Arena as we take on the Taipans @ 6:30pm ?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RIVERCITYSTRONG?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RIVERCITYSTRONG</a> <a href="https://t.co/z6E59RqAeW">pic.twitter.com/z6E59RqAeW</a></p>&mdash; Brisbane Bullets (@BrisbaneBullets) <a href="https://twitter.com/BrisbaneBullets/status/1609767957756014595?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 2, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


“Just some stability to allow these young guys to continue to develop, they’ve been doing a great job,” Johnson said.

“You saw DJ maybe wasn’t really in the role he wanted to be the last couple of games and then comes in and has a positive attitude and we've almost turned it so we have the momentum on the back of some of the plays he was making.”

The performance of those emerging players makes Brisbane’s stars all-the-more dangerous, as keying on Sobey, Johnson and Baynes becomes fraught with danger.

While the injury bug continues to bite, if Baynes plays on Thursday they’ll have their full roster for just the second time this season.

Coach Forde laughed at the social media warriors who have written the Bullets off, knowing they have played some outstanding basketball in long stretches recently as their group finally comes together.

“You’ve just got to approach it for the team that they are, and they're a good basketball team,” he said.

“You’ve got a lot of clowns who’ll say what they say on the outside, but the people looking in knowing the type of talent they have, you don’t underestimate anybody.”